How to coordinate vaccination and social distancing to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Abstract

The world is waiting for a vaccine to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, once it becomes available, there will not be enough to vaccinate everybody at once. Therefore, vaccination and social distancing has to be coordinated. In this paper, we provide some insight on this topic using optimization-based control on an age-differentiated compartmental model. For real-life decision making we investigate the impact of the planning horizon on the optimal vaccination/social distancing strategy. We find that in order to reduce social distancing in the long run without overburdening the intensive care units it is essential to vaccinate the people with the highest contact rates first. However, for short-term planning it is optimal to focus on the high-risk group. Furthermore, large amounts of a vaccine with a lower success rate allows for more reduction of the social distancing than smaller amounts of a vaccine with higher success rate.

Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study

“…Similar results were obtained by Grundel et al [15], who combined an optimization-based control approach with an age-dependent epidemiological model. To be able to relax physical/social distancing measures, a vaccination strategy royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rsif J. R. Soc.…”

“…Similar results were obtained by Grundel et al . [ 15 ], who combined an optimization-based control approach with an age-dependent epidemiological model. To be able to relax physical/social distancing measures, a vaccination strategy targeting high-risk subjects was more effective in the short-term, whereas an approach based on the reduction in social contact rates was the optimal choice in the long-term.…”

Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling

“…[13][14][15] More recently, models are gaining traction as decision support systems to design efficient vaccination campaigns. [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] Effective vaccine rollout strategies are the solution of complex optimization problems, due to limited availability of vaccines, differential effectiveness and adverse effects across age strata and fragility profiles, time constraints on double-dose administration, and distribution issues. [16,17] Ongoing efforts have quantitatively addressed several aspects of vaccination campaigns.…”

“…Giordano et al [19] and Moore et al [20] have highlighted the importance of maintaining NPIs during the early stages of vaccination roll-outs in Italy and the United Kingdom, respectively. The problem of coordinating the early-stage of vaccination campaigns and intervention policies has also been investigated in other studies, [21][22][23][24] focusing on the spread of virus variants that are potentially resistant to the vaccine.…”

Managing SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Schools with an Artificial Intelligence Model and Application Developed by Simulation Data

“…Studies leveraged data from ongoing research and guidelines from intergovernmental agencies such as the World Health Organization (WHO), which provides advice on the ways in which the virus gets spread [66]. The data qualitatively informed the selection and calibration of parameters such as the availability of tests [67], levels of preparedness and response capacity at schools [68], hygiene guidance [69], target groups [70], demographic factors [71], geographies [72], the expected amount of unrecorded symptomatic people [73], individual pre-existing conditions [74] and the cost of measures being implemented [75]. The sensitivity of those parameters to uncertainties [76], to hypothetical scenarios such as the additional impact of isolation and quarantine [77], as well as the overall efficiency of arrangements such as test-trace-isolate [1] or diagnosing-screening-surveilling arrangements [78] have thus far informed modeling architectures.…”