How to co-exist with COVID-19? A health economics explanation based on the Chinese experience

Yang, Keng; Qi, Hanying

doi:10.7189/jogh.12.03044

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This extrapolation was strongly supported by ARIMA forecasting that predicted a peak of HMFD cases around May 2020 in the absence of NPIs ( Figures 6C , D ). From then on, the dynamic Zero-COVID policy continued until December 2022 ( Figure 6B ) ( Yang and Yu, 2023 ). As shown in the Figures 5 6B , the predicted biennial peak of HFMD incidence did not occur around May 2022 but a low-volatility plateau of HFMD incidence, which might be caused by the constant NPIs during the 2nd outbreak from March 16 to May 6 2022 ( Figure 6B ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A national-scale investigation found that these NPIs have substantially reduced the incidence of HFMD in the first wave of COVID-19 ( Zhao et al, 2022 ). Since the first COVID-19 outbreak in most cities of China, NPIs, vaccines and dynamic Zero-COVID policy were implemented to combat SARS-CoV-2 around mainland China till the end of 2022 ( Yang and Yu, 2023 ). However, the impact of these measures on epidemiological and etiologic characteristics of HFMD has not been well-studied.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Surveillance, epidemiology, and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of enterovirus infections in Nanchang, China, 2010–2022

Zhou,

Qian,

Zhu

et al. 2023

Front. Microbiol.

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IntroductionPathogen spectrum of Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has substantially changed in the past decade in China. Growing evidence has indicated that anti-COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can support control of various infectious diseases, including intestinal diseases.MethodsIn this study, HFMD cases were enrolled from sentinel hospitals of Nanchang, Jiangxi province, and enteroviruses were genotyped using specific real time RT-PCR. We systematically characterized the epidemiology of HFMD based on the continuous molecular surveillance and estimated the impact of COVID-19 intervention on HFMD incidence using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.ResultsA total of 10247 HFMD cases were included during 2010-2022, of which 6121 enterovirus (EV)-positive cases (59.7%) were identified by real-time RT-PCR. Over 80% cases were associated with EV-A71 and coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) during 2010-2012, while the type distribution significantly changed as CVA6 emerged to be dominant, accounting for 22.6%-59.6% during 2013-2022. It was observed that the prevalence patterns of EV-A71 and CVA16 were similar and both of them peaked in the second quarter and then leveled off. However, CVA6 was generally prevalent around the fourth quarter, demonstrating a staggered prevalence during 2010-2019. During the COVID-19 epidemic, the seasonal HFMD epidemic peak was restrained, and the ARIMA analysis indicated that the COVID-19 intervention had mitigated EV transmission during the first COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. In addition, bivariate Spearman’s cross-correlation coefficients were estimated for the major types CVA6, CVA16 and EV-A71. Our analyses indicated the possible existence of correlations among CVA6, CVA16 and EV-A71 prevalence in the epidemiological level.DiscussionTaken together, the type distribution of HFMD has substantially changed over the last decade and CVA6 and CVA16 are currently the most predominant types co-circulating in Nanchang. The anti-COVID-19 NPIs significantly reduced the incidence of EV infections.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surveillance, epidemiology, and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of enterovirus infections in Nanchang, China, 2010–2022

Zhou,

Qian,

Zhu

et al. 2023

Front. Microbiol.

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“…Various measures have been implemented in response to emergencies such as COVID-19, including isolation from the community, social distancing, reducing crowd, closing school, swift diagnosis, and contact tracing [ 4 – 7 ]. These interventions fall into two categories: the blocking mode and the mitigation mode [ 8 ]. The former suggests that some countries have focused on paying short-term costs to avoid significant long-term health and economic losses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From an economic perspective, some scholars argue that the optimal control policy depends on the pandemic’s impact on healthcare resources and the populace [ 7 ]. Meanwhile, others emphasise that it is a balance between the impact on public health consequences and economic growth [ 12 ], or even a trade-off between value of health and the economic cost of implementing control policies [ 8 , 13 ]. Essentially, a greater number of studies centre on the costs associated with pandemic prevention policies, with a reduced number of studies assessing health benefits.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The optimisation of public health emergency governance: a simulation study based on COVID-19 pandemic control policy

Yang,

2023

Global Health

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Background The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked numerous studies on policy options for managing public health emergencies, especially regarding how to choose the intensity of prevention and control to maintain a balance between economic development and disease prevention. Methods We constructed a cost-benefit model of COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control policies based on an epidemic transmission model. On this basis, numerical simulations were performed for different economies to analyse the dynamic evolution of prevention and control policies. These economies include areas with high control costs, as seen in high-income economies, and areas with relatively low control costs, exhibited in upper-middle-income economies. Results The simulation results indicate that, at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, both high-and low-cost economies tended to enforce intensive interventions. However, as the virus evolved, particularly in circumstances with relatively rates of reproduction, short incubation periods, short spans of infection and low mortality rates, high-cost economies became inclined to ease restrictions, while low-cost economies took the opposite approach. However, the consideration of additional costs incurred by the non-infected population means that a low-cost economy is likely to lift restrictions as well. Conclusions This study concludes that variations in prevention and control policies among nations with varying income levels stem from variances in virus transmission characteristics, economic development, and control costs. This study can help researchers and policymakers better understand the differences in policy choice among various economies as well as the changing trends of dynamic policy choices, thus providing a certain reference value for the policy direction of global public health emergencies.

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“…A national-scale investigation found that these NPIs have substantially reduced the incidence of HFMD in the first wave of COVID-19 (13). Since the first outbreak in most cities of China, NPIs, vaccines and dynamic Zero-Covid policy were implemented to combat SARS-CoV-2 around mainland China till the end of 2022 (14). However, the impact of these measures on epidemiological and etiologic characteristics of HFMD has not been well studied.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Virus-virus interactions of enteroviruses and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Nanchang, China

Zhou

Zhu

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Pathogen spectrum of Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has substantially changed in the past decade. How do the co-circulating pathogens interact and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) intervene the incidence of HFMD remain unclear. Here, we evaluated the virus-virus interaction (VVI) of EVs using Spearman’s Correlation in Nanchang, China. And the impact of COVID-19 intervention on HFMD incidence was estimated using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Enterovirus (EV) serotypes were determined by RT-PCR. From 2019 to 2022, 1321 (57.5%) out of 2296 HFMD cases were EV-positive, in which coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) and CVA16 were the major pathogens, accounting for 34.0%-59.6% and 14.9%-31.4%, respectively. Our analyses provide strong statistical support for the existence of VVIs among enteroviruses, in which CVA6 negatively interacted with CVA16 and EV-A71, and positive VVI between CVA16 and EV-A71 was observed. While CVA6 has a (albeit inconsistent) seasonal pattern in Nanchang, typically peaking in fall-winter months before COVID-19 epidemic, CVA16 and EV-A71 contemporaneously peaks around May, supporting the epidemiological VVIs among these strains. During the COVID-19 epidemic, the seasonal HFMD epidemic peak was restrained, indicating the COVID-19 intervention had mitigated EV transmission. Moreover, we first figured out the serotypes from other enteroviruses, among them CVA4, CVA2, CVA5 and CVB3 were the major agents accounting for 34.8%, 23.9%, 23.9% and 10.9%, respectively. Taken together, CVA6 and CVA16 were currently the most predominant pathogens negatively interacted with each other in Nanchang, while NPIs of COVID-19 outbreaks interfered the interactions by mitigating their incidence and transmission.

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How to co-exist with COVID-19? A health economics explanation based on the Chinese experience

Abstract: Photo: The trade-off between the benefits of life-health-value and the cost of COVID-19 control strategy (designed by the authors, used with permission).

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Surveillance, epidemiology, and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of enterovirus infections in Nanchang, China, 2010–2022

Surveillance, epidemiology, and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of enterovirus infections in Nanchang, China, 2010–2022

The optimisation of public health emergency governance: a simulation study based on COVID-19 pandemic control policy

Virus-virus interactions of enteroviruses and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Nanchang, China

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