How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis

Kalkuhl, Matthias

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2437443

Cited by 22 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Regarding price fluctuations, our results are in line with Kornher and Kalkuhl (), who show that international price volatility significantly impacts domestic price volatility. Our findings are also supported by other studies that found cointegration among the world, Black Sea and MENA region wheat markets (Goychuk and Meyers, ; Ianchovichina et al , ; Kalkuhl, ; Ünal et al , ). However, although MENA production and net import values increase in our scenarios, this is not necessarily a signal that prices will increase evenly across the supply chain.…”

Section: Discussion Of Results and Policy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 92%

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Araujo-Enciso¹,

Fellmann²

2019

J Agricultural Economics

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Exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global wheat availability and, hence, global food security. During the past 15 years, however, RUK wheat exports have shown high variability, mainly because they have been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. We present an outlook for RUK wheat production and exports up to 2027, taking into account possible yield variability and harvest failures, and focusing on the impact on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world's major wheat importing region. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the Aglink-Cosimo model. Simulation results show that wheat yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international wheat markets. The projected substantial increases in world market prices due to limited RUK wheat exports threaten food security in MENA and highlight the need for both stabilising RUK yields and novel complementary food security approaches to decrease MENA's vulnerability to disruptions in agricultural world markets.

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Section: Discussion Of Results and Policy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 92%

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Araujo-Enciso¹,

Fellmann²

2019

J Agricultural Economics

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“…While the overall trend in recent years is a gradual increase of domestic maize trade integration in SSA, price transmission across countries and from the international market follows a different dynamic. Systematic inquiries of world food prices pass through found weak integration of global markets with domestic SSA grain economies, dominated by local supply shocks and sluggish price adjustments (Baquedano and Liefert, ; Bekkers et al., ; Kalkuhl, ; Minot, ; Rapsomanikis and Mugera, ). Meta‐regressions from Kouyaté and Cramon‐Taubadel () suggest that borders significantly reduce the likelihood of cointegration, especially for maize markets.…”

Section: Maize Market Integration In Sub‐saharan Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

Pierre

Kaminski

2018

Agricultural Economics

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In order to study short-run price shock propagation, we model twenty seven Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) domestic maize markets within a Global Vector Autoregression framework. The main purpose is to fully embed multilateral trade flows as a way to better structure local price transmission dynamics and interdependencies, and get a more comprehensive picture of food price shocks propagation. We found significant between-country market contagion and prompt regional price shock propagation when trade connection exists. Yet, the integration of SSA domestic maize markets within the continent and with global markets remains generally weak. Furthermore, under regular market conditions, most local price series appear to be more responsive to regional neighbors than to global shocks.JEL classifications: C13, C15, C32, Q10, Q11

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“…These supply shortages would mostly be mediated by price-effects. Several works study the transmission of prices and price volatility from international to domestic markets (Kornher and Kalkuhl 2013, Baquedano and Liefert 2014, Kalkuhl 2014. Such spatially disconnected climate events and market reactions, combined with the governance obstacles to adequately respond, are considered to have played an important role in the Arab Spring (Sternberg 2012, Werrell andFemia 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Teleconnected food supply shocks

d’Amour

Wenz

Kalkuhl

et al. 2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

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128

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The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.

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How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis

Cited by 22 publications

References 12 publications

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

Teleconnected food supply shocks

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