How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

The Challenges Posed by Demographic Change in sub‐Saharan Africa: A Concise Overview

“…Indeed, modeling by a World Bank team estimates only a modest boost to income per head resulting from faster growth in the labor force than in the entire population and from increased savings and investment. Between 2011 and 2030, the effect is estimated to be an increase of 0.4 percentage points in the real GDP per capita growth rate for the region as a whole (Ahmed et al 2014). A similarly modest effect of an exogenous decline in the total fertility rate of 0.5 births per woman was estimated for Nigeria (Ashraf, Weil, and Wilde 2013).…”

“…Between 2011 and 2030, the effect is estimated to be an increase of 0.4 percentage points in the real GDP per capita growth rate for the region as a whole (Ahmed et al. ). A similarly modest effect of an exogenous decline in the total fertility rate of 0.5 births per woman was estimated for Nigeria (Ashraf, Weil, and Wilde ).…”

Structural change in Ethiopia

“…Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, with the total dependency ratio expected to fall sharply from 91 in 2010 to 62 in 2030 (UN, ). Ahmed, Cruz, Go, Maliszewska, and Osorio‐Rodarte () estimate that Ethiopia's demographic dividend may provide an additional 2.3 percentage points to average annual GDP per capita growth between 2011 and 2030—the largest effect in Africa. In order to secure these gains, however, it is necessary to invest in education—to provide adequate skills to the workforce—and create productive employment opportunities for new entrants in the labour market, especially young people.…”

The Future of Social Protection in a Borderless Africa: Social Innovation for the Management of Risk and Uncertainty amongst Informal Africa Migrants.

“…Also, Africa's population growth is expected to double by 2050 from the 1.186 billion in 2015 (UNDESA, 2015), indicating an increase in the labor force. While demographic growth is supposed to usher in new opportunities for Africa, it is also expected to create new challenges and intensify existing ones (Ahmed et al, 2014;Ncube et al, 2013). In this context, mobility within the region will also be expected to increase as more people seek to better their economic chances.…”