Abstract:This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 | ECO/WKP(2019)60 HOW RESPONSIVE ARE HOUSING MARKETS IN THE OECD? REGIONAL LEVEL ESTIMATES UnclassifiedOECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed ar… Show more
“…Several structural factors explain elevated housing demand in cities. These include trends in urbanisation and the concentration of populations (including refugees and migrants) in urban centres in search of better opportunities and lifestyles (Awaworyi Churchill, Hailemariam and Erdiaw-Kwasie, 2020 [21]). Falling marriage rates and rising divorce rates (OECD, 2023 [22]) are generating additional demand for (smaller) housing units (OECD, 2021 [15]).…”
Section: Mismatch Between Housing Supply and Demandmentioning
The OECD is a multi-disciplinary inter-governmental organisation with member countries which engages in its work an increasing number of non-members from all regions of the world. The Organisation's core mission today is to help governments work together towards a stronger, cleaner, fairer global economy. Through its network of specialised committees and working groups, the OECD provides a setting where governments compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice, and co-ordinate domestic and international policies. More information available: www.oecd.org.
“…Several structural factors explain elevated housing demand in cities. These include trends in urbanisation and the concentration of populations (including refugees and migrants) in urban centres in search of better opportunities and lifestyles (Awaworyi Churchill, Hailemariam and Erdiaw-Kwasie, 2020 [21]). Falling marriage rates and rising divorce rates (OECD, 2023 [22]) are generating additional demand for (smaller) housing units (OECD, 2021 [15]).…”
Section: Mismatch Between Housing Supply and Demandmentioning
The OECD is a multi-disciplinary inter-governmental organisation with member countries which engages in its work an increasing number of non-members from all regions of the world. The Organisation's core mission today is to help governments work together towards a stronger, cleaner, fairer global economy. Through its network of specialised committees and working groups, the OECD provides a setting where governments compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice, and co-ordinate domestic and international policies. More information available: www.oecd.org.
“…Betin and Ziemann (2019) use regional cross-country GIS data from 12 OECD countries. They confirm that land use restriction is an important influence on supply elasticities.…”
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The author explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics, using data for 35 Indian cities with a million-plus population. The research methodology uses panel econometrics allowing for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationary data. The author tests for spatial differences and analyses the income elasticity of prices, the role of construction costs and lending to the real estate industry by commercial banks.
Findings
Long-term fundamentals drive the Indian housing markets, where wealth parameters are stronger than supply-side parameters such as construction costs or availability of financing for housing projects. The long-term elasticity of house prices to aggregate household deposits (wealth proxy) varies considerably across cities. However, the elasticity estimated at 0.39 is low. The highest coefficient is for Ludhiana (1.14), followed by Bhubaneswar (0.78). The short-term dynamics are robust and show spatial heterogeneity. Short-term momentum (lagged housing price changes) has a parameter value of 0.307. The momentum factor is the crucial dynamic in the short term. The second driver, the reversion rate to long-term equilibrium (estimated at −0.18), is higher than rates reported from developed markets.
Research limitations/implications
This research applies to markets that require some home equity contributions from buyers of housing services.
Practical implications
Stakeholders can characterise stable housing markets based on long-term fundamental value and short-run house price dynamics. Because stable housing markets benefit all stakeholders, weak or non-existent mean reversion dynamics may prompt the intervention of policymakers. The role of urban planners, and local and regional governance, is essential to remove the bottlenecks from the demand side or supply side factors that can lead to runaway prices.
Originality/value
Existing literature is concerned about the risk of a housing bubble due to relaxed credit norms. To prevent housing market bubbles, some regulators require higher contributions from home buyers in the form of equity. The dynamics of house prices in markets with higher owner equity requirements vary from high-leverage markets. The influence of wealth effects is examined using novel data sets. This research, documents in an emerging market context, the observations cited in low-leverage developed markets such as Germany and Japan.
“…The resulting price increases generally have far-reaching social and economic consequences. Despite the importance of the issue, international evidence on the responsiveness of housing supply remains scarce, although a growing body of work is addressing the subject (Bétin and Ziemann, 2019;Cavalleri et al, 2019).…”
Section: The Basic Functioning Of Housing Markets In Cities: An Overviewmentioning
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