How Prediction Accuracy Can Affect the Decision-Making Process in Pavement Management System

Abstract

One of the most important components of pavement management systems is predicting the deterioration of the network through performance models. The accuracy of the prediction model is important for prioritizing maintenance action. This paper describes how the accuracy of prediction models can have an effect on the decision-making process in terms of the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The process is simulating the propagation of the error between the actual and predicted values of pavement performance indicators. Different rate of error (10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%) was added into the result of prediction models. The results showed a strong correlation between the prediction models’ accuracy and the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The cost of treatment (in millions of dollars) over 20 years for five different scenarios increased from ($54.07–$92.95), ($53.89–$155.48), and ($74.41–$107.77) for asphalt, composite, and concrete pavement types, respectively. Increasing the rate of error also contributed to the prediction model, resulting in a higher benefit reduction rate.

Defects in Flexible Pavements: A Relationship Assessment of Defects for Low-Cost Pavement Management System

“…It is not easy to identify the existence of various distress indicators. Distress position, scale, severity and mapping is a key a problem (Hosseini & Smadi, 2021). Inspectors walking around the segment of the highway have historically carried out thorough manual checks.…”

“…The transportation agencies can determine future budget needs, funding allocations and treatment policy to demonstrate the best possible use of pavement management resources Fixed for local conditions and road condition assessment models cannot be integrated. (Hosseini & Smadi, 2021) The accuracy of prediction models can affect the decision-making process maintenance activities.…”

BIM-Based Pavement Management Tool for Scheduling Urban Road Maintenance

“…The implementation of a pavement management system requires the definition of appropriate maintenance criteria and condition indicators, monitoring of the state of the road pavement, and archiving and processing of data, in order to plan and schedule maintenance interventions [3,4].…”

Optimization Model of Network‐Level Pavement Maintenance Decision considering User Travel Time and Vehicle Fuel Consumption Costs

“…However, due to the lack of maintenance experience, the large scale of maintenance requirements, and the shortage of maintenance funds resources, a comprehensive and scientific decision-making method has not yet been established so far. How to establish efficient and scientific pavement maintenance and management methods, improve operational efficiency, meet high-quality pavement maintenance needs, and meet various transportation needs has become important problems encountered in pavement management [22].…”