How Populist Incumbents Use Strategic Communication to Survive Economic Crises: The Surprising Effectiveness of Incumbent Economic Appeals

Abstract

Why do populist incumbents retain public support despite economic crises? To win voters, populist incumbents may pursue two strategies. First, to reduce the salience of their poor economic performance, populist incumbents can shift the agenda to sociocultural issues like social status—a defining tactic of populist leaders. Alternatively, they can appeal to economic issues with macroeconomic populism by emphasizing social spending and economic nationalism. We tested the effectiveness of these strategies using a survey experiment with 2,400 Turkish citizens before Turkey’s 2023 elections, in which respondents were exposed to rhetoric simulating the incumbent’s campaign messaging about sociocultural or economic issues. Whereas sociocultural messaging had no significant effects, the incumbent’s economic rhetoric increased respondents’ likelihood of voting for the incumbent by five percentage points. Economic messaging also increased approval of the incumbent’s economic management, natural disaster response, and overall performance. Promises of social spending and economic nationalism emerge as key mechanisms swaying voters.