How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

Wilkinson, A.J.; Kupers, Roland; Mangalagiu, Diana

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.031

Cited by 95 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Among large number of issues which have been dealt with in the abundant scenario planning literature, three categories of issues are apparently relevant to ecosystem forecasting. They are the scenario planning method which is most suitable for the ecosystem forecasting, the effective combining of scenario planning with the quantitative ecosystem forecasting, and lastly the need for and the usefulness of a structured approach based on the structuration theory [15] and the complexity theory [16].…”

Section: Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to these diverse complementary methodologies for scenario planning practices, new aspects to scenario praxis were recently raised [15,16]. The rationale behind these new approaches is that as tighter interconnections of nature, social and economic systems lead to greater uncertainty and complexity embedded in the socio-economic system, a consistent set of ontological and epistemological axioms are needed for analyzing future uncertainties within a flexible sociological framework [15,16].…”

Section: Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The rationale behind these new approaches is that as tighter interconnections of nature, social and economic systems lead to greater uncertainty and complexity embedded in the socio-economic system, a consistent set of ontological and epistemological axioms are needed for analyzing future uncertainties within a flexible sociological framework [15,16]. Wilkinson et al [16] insisted that incorporating key insights from complexity science into scenario practices is an obvious 'must have' in engaging complex, messy and puzzling situations and guiding actions in the 21st century.…”

Section: Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market

Chang

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Ecosystem forecasting is a challenge for any forecaster since it has a large number of variables, which vary dynamically, tightly coupled with environmental factors under a complex ecosystem architecture. The ecosystem behaves like a complex system as a whole where one variable may serve as a hierarchical pillar to other variables, while others interact with each other in non-linear forms of substitution, complementarity, synergy and externalities. This paper is targeted to develop a profound structured approach to the ecosystem forecasting which combines scenario planning with technological forecasting. Three key planning principles are derived and incorporated into the structured ecosystem forecasting methodology. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the Korean multi-screen service market is analyzed and prospected toward the year 2016. Policy and strategic implications from the structured ecosystem forecasting are also discussed to validate the practicality of the suggested methodology.

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Section: Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Review Of Relevant Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market

Chang

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…However, recent research in this context at first calls for professionalization by higher quality standards, including, stronger scientific rigor and theoretical foundation [13,14]. Wilkinson et al, for example, see the necessity to incorporate key insights from the theoretically grounded complexity science into the pragmatic field of scenario creation grappling with theoretical grounding -in order to engage the upcoming complex, messy and puzzling situations [14].…”

Section: Foresight Management With Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wilkinson et al, for example, see the necessity to incorporate key insights from the theoretically grounded complexity science into the pragmatic field of scenario creation grappling with theoretical grounding -in order to engage the upcoming complex, messy and puzzling situations [14]. Secondly, recent research proposes cross-validation and multi-methodology (triangulation) [14][15][16], for instance, combinations of different scenario approaches may lead to more reasonable scenarios and a surplus. Thirdly, stronger integration of qualitative and quantitative data in foresight is also called for as different methods have their strengths and weaknesses in different areas [16][17][18].…”

Section: Foresight Management With Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

2013

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Within foresight management in general and scenario development in particular, the question is often asked: "For what scenario do I have to be prepared?" Since there are manifold approaches of scenario technique, the ways to answer this question with the help of scenario technique are also manifold. Scenario approaches using probabilities, for example, would recommend emphasizing the most probabilistic scenario. However, the consideration of probabilities, in our opinion, is not always useful. From a combinatorial point of view, any given scenario has an infinitesimal probability of being right, since there are so many possible variations (Gee et al. in Deep News Glob Bus Netw 2(4):199, 1991). Additionally, when regarding all possible developments that may be relevant for a scenario, each development has only an infinitesimal probability of coming true. Following these thoughts, the consideration of probabilities often has no additional benefit and, therefore, is not necessarily needed within scenario development. In this paper, the use of probabilities in scenarios will be discussed. On the one hand, this includes a discussion about scenarios in which the considerations do not make sense. On the other hand, the paper will also show an approach of considering additional information within the scenario creation process to select the most important scenario.Keywords Scenario process . Probability . Foresight . Trends PrefaceHaving developed scenarios within foresight management, it is often unclear for what scenario a company has to be prepared. Different existing scenario approaches presumably also deliver different answers in this (decision-making) situation.In this context, Bradfield et al.[2] provide a good overview of the existing schools of scenario technique using several criteria for classification. One classification criterion is the use of probabilities for the development of the scenarios. Probabilities within scenario technique are well discussed in literature -along with their advantages and disadvantages [1,3,4]. We will pick up these discussions and take a deeper look at probabilities in scenario development. We divide our consideration into three parts in order to do this: the use of probabilities within the scenario creation process; the attachment of probabilities to the developed scenarios; and probabilities in the scenario controlling process.Since we see that the disadvantages dominate the advantages of using probabilities, the paper clearly takes a position against the use of probabilities. Hence, the paper constitutes more a position paper than a discussion paper. Nevertheless, it is naturally also our intent to foster discussion about the use of probabilities. Foresight management with scenariosCompanies today find themselves in global competition with ever increasing dynamics and a complexity of framework requirements, processes and products. Apart from being internationally present, companies are also required to assure sustainable advantages in competition. Companies need to ma...

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Participatory energy futures as decision support on subnational scales

Copeland

2023

Env Pol Gov

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This paper argues the case for participatory exploratory energy futures development to assist net zero emissions decision making on subnational scales (local and regional authorities, communities, and neighbourhoods). There are many challenges for net zero decision making on subnational scales in the United Kingdom including a lack of statutory responsibility and societal consent for the local transformation required, and no allocation of emissions reduction to meet the national net zero emissions legislated target in aggregate. Participatory exploratory energy futures can contribute to addressing these challenges and support local decision making. This is by exploring diverse possible futures and understanding the capacity for local climate change mitigation. Participatory exploratory energy futures can act too as a seeding strategy for wider debates on a preferred local future. A framework for participatory exploratory energy futures using the 2 × 2 matrix method is proposed. It is envisaged that these exercises would be complementary to other activities on subnational scales such as climate assemblies or ‘mini‐publics’. Local electoral cycles and a lack of statutory responsibility can lead to there being a focus on implementing mini‐public recommendations that are feasible in the near term. The participatory exploratory futures developed explore possibilities for the local energy system and how it may evolve in a holistic manner not just in the near term but the longer term. When local policy and decision making is recognised as aligning with the desired rather than undesired future, this can motivate all in the herculean efforts to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.

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How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

Cited by 95 publications

References 39 publications

A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market

A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

Participatory energy futures as decision support on subnational scales

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