How Long Before NATO Aircraft Carrier Force Projection Capabilities Are Successfully Countered? Some effects of the fiscal crises

Abstract

Growth and fiscal policy conducive to economic development have been severely jeopardized in most NATO member countries since 2008. In sharp contrast, China has experienced only a relatively slower GDP growth, which it has mitigated with a fiscally expansionary outlook. Under these conditions, when can we expect the politico-military position of NATO to be challenged? This paper surveys amphibious force projection capabilities in six countries: the USA, the UK, France, Russia, India and the People's Republic of China (PRC). An assessment of the current capability for aircraft carrier building and a survey of carrier-related ambitions is undertaken to offer projections of probable aircraft carrier fleets by 2030. The three non-NATO countries are far better positioned to build aircraft carriers than the three NATO members, with China in the lead. Nevertheless, there is a high probability of the continued military dominance of the USA and NATO, but also of a military build-up focusing on the Indian Ocean.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Incoming Hegemonic Shift

“…This section will show that this is an area that provided the most resilience of the old hegemon. I have argued elsewhere [9] that credible force projection hinges on aircraft carriers and large amphibious vessels. While it is increasingly true that such assets are vulnerable to far more inexpensive unmanned vehicles it remains the only practical way to quickly globally dispatch and support ground troops in large quantities.…”