How Informative Are Central Bank Minutes?

Apel, Mikael; Grimaldi, Marianna

doi:10.1515/roe-2014-0104

Cited by 61 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In this section, we test whether FOMC members' attitude towards monetary policy can be detected in the language, or tone, they use in their speeches. To categorize language as hawkish or dovish, we employ an automated search-and-counts-approach that closely builds on the analysis of Apel and Grimaldi (2014). Apel and Grimaldi (2014) examine the Swedish Riksbank minutes and test whether their tone conveys a policy inclination toward loosening or tightening monetary policy.…”

Section: Inflation Experiences and The Tone Of Fomc Members' Speementioning

confidence: 99%

“…To categorize language as hawkish or dovish, we employ an automated search-and-counts-approach that closely builds on the analysis of Apel and Grimaldi (2014). Apel and Grimaldi (2014) examine the Swedish Riksbank minutes and test whether their tone conveys a policy inclination toward loosening or tightening monetary policy. We apply their classification of tone to speeches of FOMC members, with some adjustment to the different context and sample, as described in detail below.…”

Section: Inflation Experiences and The Tone Of Fomc Members' Speementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We categorize language as hawkish or dovish employing the automated search-andcounts-approach of Apel and Grimaldi (2014). We apply their Net Index of hawkishness to the sample of "Speeches and Statements" available from the Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research (FRASER), as well as additional handcollected speeches from the websites of the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Our analysis of the tone in FOMC members' speeches relates to the literature on textual analysis in monetary policy. We employ the approach established by Apel and Grimaldi (2014) who measure the tone of the Swedish central bank minutes using an automated search-and-count approach. Apel and Grimaldi find that their measure helps to predict policy rate decisions.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC

Malmendier¹,

Nagel²,

Zhen³

2017

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We show that personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components.

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Section: Inflation Experiences and The Tone Of Fomc Members' Speementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Inflation Experiences and The Tone Of Fomc Members' Speementioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC

Malmendier¹,

Nagel²,

Zhen³

2017

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“…Central bank communication has been studied from both theoretical and empirical perspectives (Bernanke et al, 1997;Blinder, 1999;Clarida et al, 2000;Woodford, 2002;Geraats, 2002;Bernanke and Reinhart, 2004;Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2005;Blinder et al, 2008;Hoeberichts et al, 2008;Eusepi, 2010;Eusepi and Preston, 2010;Berger et al, 2011;Sturm and De Haan, 2011;Demiralp et al, 2012;Apel and Grimaldi, 2014;Bergholt, 2014;Luangaram and Sethapramote, 2016;Bruno, 2016;Coenen et al, 2017). For instance, Eusepi and Preston (2010) studied the role of central bank communication in the stabilisation of agents' expectations using a fully specified new Keynesian model.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria

Tumala¹,

Omotosho²

2020

CBN-JAS

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This paper employs text-mining techniques to analyse the communication strategy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during the period 2004-2019. Since the policy communique released after each meeting of the CBN’s monetary policy committee (MPC) represents an important tool of central bank communication, we construct a corpus based on 87 policy communiques with a total of 123, 353 words. Having processed the textual data into a form suitable for analysis, we examined the readability, sentiments, and topics of the policy documents. While the CBN’s communication has increased substantially over the years, implying increased monetary policy transparency; the computed Coleman and Liau readability index shows that the word and sentence structures of the policy communiques have become more complex, thus reducing its readability. In terms of monetary policy sentiments, we find an average net score of -10.5 per cent, reflecting the level of policy uncertainties faced by the MPC over the sample period. In addition, our results indicate that the topics driving the linguistic contents of the communiques were influenced by the Bank’s policy objectives as well as the nature of shocks hitting the economy per period.

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Dictionary-based sentiment analysis of monetary policy communication: on the applicability of lexicons

Rutkowska,

Szyszko

2024

Qual Quant

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In this study, we discuss central bank communication sentiments assessed using different dictionaries. Policy communication by monetary authorities is considered an essential additional policy tool. Various text-mining techniques could evaluate its sentiment. Dictionary methods are a prominent example here because they offer simplicity and are a starting point for applying more elaborate methods. We decided to test four lexicons: generic, economic and financial and two domain-specific lexicons to conclude on their applicability to assess the sentiments of monetary releases and provide recommendations for their further application. This study surveys four lexicons qualitatively and conducts a few exercises: lexicon content comparison, performance tests for highly positive and negative messages, and statistical tests of dictionary alignment and correlation. The sample covers small open economies implementing inflation targeting. The study concludes that all investigated dictionaries could be used for detecting central bank intentions: they do not return contradictory results. The choice among them for a particular study depends on the study’s setup and goals—as presented in our recommendations

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How Informative Are Central Bank Minutes?

Cited by 61 publications

References 10 publications

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC

The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC

A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria

Dictionary-based sentiment analysis of monetary policy communication: on the applicability of lexicons

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