How feeling understood predicts trust and willingness to forgive in the midst of violent intergroup conflict: Longitudinal evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

How can intergroup trust and forgiveness be fostered in the face of violent, large-scale intergroup conflict? We addressed this challenge by testing the role of intergroup felt understanding – the extent to which outgroup members are perceived to understand ingroup perspectives – in predicting Ukrainian nationals’ inclinations to trust and forgive Russians for the conflict that has affected Ukraine since 2014. We did so using representative longitudinal data (N = 743 across three time points) collected six months before Russia’s full-scale invasion. Pre-registered analysis of dynamic mediation models confirmed that increases over time in felt understanding predicted increases over time in perceived positive regard, which in turn predicted increased outgroup trust and forgiveness over time. A mini-multiverse analysis indicated that this pattern was also largely robust to varying time point specifications. The findings provide further evidence that the feeling of being understood may be a key psychological factor that enables reconciliation.