How Fear of Violence Drives Intergroup Conflict: Evidence from a Panel Survey in India

Abstract

Earlier research on ethnic and religious conflict has identified fear as an important motivation. While theoretically sound, this expectation has never been tested at larger scales in ongoing episodes of political violence. Instead, conceptual progress has been made in lab experiments. Combining insights from observational research and stylized experiments, we predict that fear for personal safety due to witnessed violence causes prejudice against outgroups, enhanced internal cohesion, and support for extremist actors. To test these predictions, we conducted surveys in the Indian State of Uttar Pradesh with identical respondents in three waves starting in January 2017. The surveys continued during the tense Legislative Assembly elections in the Spring. The results largely corroborate the theoretical expectations and present a hard in-vivo test of long-standing conjectures.

Violent Conflict and Hostility Towards Ethno-religious Outgroups in Nigeria (Version 2)

“…Moreover, they found that attacks perpetrated by Islamist insurgents led to distrust of Muslims. In another study conducted in India, Schutte et al (2023) found that conflict not only caused prejudice towards religious outgroups and strengthened ingroup cohesion, but also increased support for extremist activities perpetrated by ingroup members. Using experiments, Obaidi et al (2018) have shown that the perceived cultural threat posed by Muslims leads to increased support for the persecution of the Muslim outgroup among the Swedish and Danish populations.…”

“…This study contributes to the broader literature on intergroup relations in the shadow of violent conflict (e.g., Schutte et al 2023Schutte et al , 2022Tuki 2023;Whitt et al 2021;Calvo et al 2020;Ferwerda et al 2017). The subsequent sections are organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the literature on the nexus between conflict and social cohesion.…”