How fast societies reach consensus over elections?: a methodology to study the evolution of Twitter conversations before election day

Abstract

Technological developments in media and communications such as press, radio, and television have disrupted electoral processes and reshaped political landscapes. Similarly, the development of surveys enabled the social sciences to study the voting processes and measure consensus in a population prior to democratic elections. Literature on social networks and elections has focused on predicting electoral outcomes rather than understanding how the discussions between users evolve over time. As a result most studies focus on a single election and few comparative studies exist. In this article, a methodology to analyze Twitter conversations about election candidates is proposed. Using DeGroot’s consensus model-an assumption that all users are attempting to persuade others to talk about a candidate-the methodology allows to identify the structure and strength of connections of the mention networks on each month prior to an election day. It also helps to make comparisons between elections and identify patterns on different contexts. In the end, an analysis on the elections where the incumbent was running and the political regime is presented.