How fast are viruses spreading in the wild?

Abstract

Genomic data collected from viral outbreaks can be exploited to reconstruct the dispersal history of viral lineages in a two-dimensional space using continuous phylogeographic inference. These spatially explicit reconstructions can subsequently be used to estimate dispersal metrics allowing to unveil the dispersal dynamics and evaluate the capacity to spread among hosts. Heterogeneous sampling intensity of genomic sequences can however impact the accuracy of dispersal insights gained through phylogeographic inference. In our study, we implement a simulation framework to evaluate the robustness of three dispersal metrics - a lineage dispersal velocity, a diffusion coefficient, and an isolation-by-distance signal metric - to the sampling effort. Our results reveal that both the diffusion coefficient and isolation-by-distance signal metrics appear to be robust to the number of samples considered for the phylogeographic reconstruction. We then use these two dispersal metrics to compare the dispersal pattern and capacity of various viruses spreading in animal populations. Our comparative analysis reveals a broad range of isolation-by-distance patterns and diffusion coefficients mostly reflecting the dispersal capacity of the main infected host species but also, in some cases, the likely signature of rapid and/or long-distance dispersal events driven by human-mediated movements through animal trade. Overall, our study provides key recommendations for the lineage dispersal metrics to consider in future studies and illustrates their application to compare the spread of viruses in various settings.