How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover influence sustainability

Abstract

It is estimated that the Earth’s biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land—generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth’s terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.

Growth in human population and consumption both need to be addressed to reach an ecologically sustainable future

“…In response, by 2050 the environmental impacts of food production are also expected to further increase by 50-90% (Springmann et al 2018). In such context, it can be questioned whether feeding the world can even be compatible with maintaining global biodiversity (Musters et al 2000;Newton et al 2007;Mora and Sale 2011;Henderson and Loreau 2018).…”

Possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context

“…Humankind and environment are bidirectionally linked through a dynamical hierarchical feedback [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Society impacts the natural systems by exploiting, extracting, and (sometimes) restoring resources, as well as polluting.…”

“…The actual SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is an excellent example of how a natural event can break this coupling among societies and the environment. Historically, many civilizations have collapsed due to their inadequate resource-management policies and the lack of an ability to modify their cultural practices, like the consumption of non-traditional foods [ 9 , 10 ], thereby creating unsustainable trajectories [ 5 ]. The beginnings of pandemics often result from the transgression of animal habitats and leads to severe disruption and damage to our lives in both the public health and economic domains [ 6 , 11 , 12 ].…”

Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context

“…Mankind and environment are bidirectionally linked through a dynamical hierarchical feedback [30][31][32][33][34][35]. The society impacts the natural systems by exploiting, extracting and (sometimes) restoring resources, as well as polluting and leaving waste.…”