How Does the Location of Urban Facilities Affect the Forecasted Population Change in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe Area?

Abstract

This study aims to clarify the statistical causal relationship between the locations of urban facilities and forecasted population changes according to types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe areas. This paper’s background is the location optimization plan policy formulated by the Japanese MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in 2015. The methods combined urban ecological analysis, cohort analysis, and Bayesian network analysis. Using the Bayesian network analysis, the causal relationship between the forecasted population change ratio and the urban facility location was analyzed. The results suggest the location of urban facilities for each residential cluster that will prevent a rapid population decline in the future. Specifically, in the sprawl cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to medical facilities will sustain the future population, while in the old new-town cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to train stations will best sustain the future population. However, in the public housing cluster, residential areas more distant from regional resources will best sustain the future population. Therefore, it is worth considering different urban designs in the old new-town and public housing clusters, rather than the location optimization plan policy.

Changes in Walkable Streets during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Suburban City in the Osaka Metropolitan Area

“…Figure 3 shows that there are two railroads and two highways entering from the south of Ibaraki City. 3 shows the same results found by Kato [4,41]).…”

“…The data in Figure 4 were subtracted from the raster data of April 2020 EBK-Speed map and the raster data of the April 2019 EBK-Speed map. 3 shows the same results found by Kato [4,41]).…”

“…Figure 3. Locations of the residential clusters in Ibaraki City (Figure3shows the same results found by Kato[4,41]). …”

“…Kato [4] analyzed the types of clusters using urban ecological analysis in the Osaka metropolitan area, the same region studied in this paper. The validity of the analysis was also assessed [41]. This research consisted of five steps, as detailed in Appendix A.…”

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Home Range in a Suburban City in the Osaka Metropolitan Area

“…Therefore, the government has introduced enhanced policies that allow citizens to conduct their daily activities on a neighborhood scale. For example, in the field of urban planning, many local governments developed the "Location Optimization Plan" [4].…”