How does income inequality affect the support for populist parties?

Abstract

Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms from previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration, and national identity. We rely on eight waves of the European Social Survey and find that economic insecurities, trust in political elites, and national identity are linked to rising income inequality and populist support as expected. However, a causal mediation analysis shows that these mechanisms are not sufficient to fully understand the impact of income inequality on support for populists. This finding raises questions regarding the empirical support of existing theories to explain how macroeconomic changes in inequality became a pre-condition for the rise of populist parties. KEYWORDS Income inequality; populism; political parties; voting decisionsMost democratic societies have experienced a rapid increase in income inequalities over the last decades. Across OECD countries the average share of disposable income that is earned by the top 10% earners has increased and is now around 9.5 times higher than the income of the bottom 10%. In the same period, liberal democracies find themselves challenged by populist parties, which separate society into two homogeneous groups, 'the pure people' versus 'the corrupt elite' and who want to implement the general will of the people irrespective of existing liberal democratic institutions. While mainstream parties suffer dramatic electoral losses, right-wing and left-wing populist parties are on the rise all over Europe (Spoon & Klüver, 2019). In 1990 populist parties received around 10% of the vote in democracies, in 2016 they received around 25% of the votes.

Does inequality erode political trust?

“…Rising income inequality has indeed been shown to lead to populist voting via what is essentially status anxiety (Engler and Weisstanner, 2021). Another study found that political trust mediates the effect of inequality on populist voting (Stoetzer et al, 2021). Taken together, this research suggests that income inequality may depress trust in political institutions via increased concern for status.…”

Explaining the ‘democratic malaise’ in unequal societies: Inequality, external efficacy and political trust

“…In particular, rising inequality was found to lower political trust (Goubin & Hooghe, 2020) and satisfaction with democracy (Christmann, 2018). Closely related studies show that over‐time changes in inequality are associated with populist party support (Engler & Weisstanner, 2021), and this has partly been attributed to decreasing levels of political trust (Stoetzer et al., 2021). Other research shows that political trust dipped during the financial crisis in Europe – a time when unemployment and inequality increased in many European countries (Gangl & Giustozzi, 2021; Hooghe & Okolikj, 2020).…”

Wirtschafts- und sozialpolitische Einstellungen und Populismus: Vertikale Konfliktachsen statt ideologischer Konsistenz

“…Denn diese kann zu einem Vertrauensverlust in politische Institutionen und eine Schuldzuweisung an etablierte Parteien führen. Populistische Parteien, die diese Schuldzuweisung bedienen, würden profitieren (Algan et al 2017;Guiso et al 2020Guiso et al , 2021Stoetzer et al 2023)…”

“…Zum einen sollte daher die Wahrnehmung ökonomischer Missstände direkt begünstigen, populistische Einstellungen zu teilen. Bezugnehmend auf bestehende Forschung werden wahrgenommene Missstände hinsichtlich der eigenen ökonomischen Situation (Kurer et al 2019;Guiso et al 2020), der eigenen Situation relativ zu anderen Gesellschaftsgruppen (Runciman 1966;Lux 2018) und bezüglich der gesamtgesellschaftlichen Ungleichheit betrachtet (Stoetzer et al 2023). Die Wahrnehmung kann von objektiven Umständen geprägt sein, ist aber theoretisch in allen sozioökonomischen Statuslagen vorstellbar (Kurer et al 2019, S. 874).…”