How Does Globalization Affect COVID-19 Responses?

Abstract

Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence.Results: The results of our survival analysis suggest that more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are quicker to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness were more cautious in the implementation of travel restrictions if they are more globalized, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis on domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. Conclusions: The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to ‘learn from others’ and also perhaps of ‘confidence’ in a government’s ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure trade and political (sub)dimensions and de facto interpersonal and cultural (sub)dimensions of globalization. By acting as proxies for a countries’ likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

Extended Kalman filter based on stochastic epidemiological model for COVID-19 modelling

“…Based on this framework, an EKF algorithm is developed for online estimation of the spreading behaviours of COVID-19, where the system state equation and system observation equation are constructed and the model parameters of SEIR(R)D-SD are also augmented into the system state to simultaneously estimate both model parameters and system state. Simulation results are consistent with the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, where the multiple outbreak waves are accurately captured by the proposed method [ 33 ]. They also reveal that SD restriction can postpone the COVID-19 outbreak and the re-infection rate can reflect the non-lifelong immunity characteristic of COVID-19.…”

“…It constitutes the following time-continuous deterministic system where S , E , I , R and D denote the susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered and deceased compartments, is the total population; and , , and are the model parameters, where is the infection rate which is the inverse of the incubation period, is the exposing rate, is the recovery rate, and is the death rate. For simplicity and consideration of the limited immigration-emigration effect on population due to border restriction policies, is generally considered as a constant for COVID-19 modelling [ 30 , 33 ].…”

Rapid evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic calls for a unified public health response

“…Established and proven public health measures including mass vaccination and various NPIs such as individual hygiene, social distancing, travel restrictions, and international quarantine as well as public health surveillance of and screening for COVID-19 are all crucial aspects of the global strategy to reduce viral transmission and the occurrence of mutations that negatively impact disease control (20,21). Nevertheless, the key to successful global control of the COVID-19 pandemic is the planning and implementation of a unified public health response among all countries, territories, areas, communities, families, and citizens; in this era of globalization, no person or entity can avoid the pandemic (2,22,23).…”

“…At the global level, the UN and WHO should continue to work closely with national governments and authorities, regional organizations, nongovernment organization (NGOs), donors, and vaccine manufacturers to improve access to and distribution of vaccines, and especially in low-and middleincome countries (LMICs) (25). More importantly, international organizations under the UN should play a constructive role as platforms in coordinating COVID-19 control efforts among countries, territories, and areas, e.g., creating mechanisms for more effective global allocation of vaccines and mutual acceptance of vaccination certificates between countries using different vaccines, as well as instituting quarantines for international travel and trade (23,26).…”

Application of Artificial Intelligence in COVID-19 Diagnosis and Therapeutics

“…However, many existing prediction models may be inaccurate for this novel pathogen. In addition, given globalization, similar infections may occur in the future [ 102 ]. To address this situation, there has been much interest in developing new systems that integrate AI techniques, which have been advancing rapidly in recent years.…”