How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy?

Peter, Jakob

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113397

Cited by 41 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Specifically in California where hydrometeorological conditions already drive price volatility (Su, Kern, Reed, & Characklis, 2020), climate change has increased the risk for low‐precipitation events that are also warm (Diffenbaugh et al., 2015). Because these changes are happening at the same time that power systems are evolving toward more renewables, there is a need to incorporate climate impacts in electricity system planning (Coughlin & Goldman, 2008; Craig et al., 2018; Peter, 2019; Ralston Fonseca et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

et al. 2022

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

et al. 2022

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“…For example, if a study represented uniform climate-induced impacts throughout the year, it may miss how the heterogeneous seasonal impacts could impact planning decisions. 34 A consistent integration into system-wide analyses is necessary to better comprehend the systemic risks a power grid faces due to climate change. An important application is to understand potential tradeoffs between present planning costs and future operation costs under different climate change scenarios.…”

Section: ■ Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They either use present configurations of the generator fleet or exogenous fleet configurations not directly linked to the climate-induced impacts represented. Additionally, some of the studies that have included the planning stage into their analysis − have not consistently integrated climate-induced impacts into their modeling framework, which could result in some biases in their results. For example, if a study represented uniform climate-induced impacts throughout the year, it may miss how the heterogeneous seasonal impacts could impact planning decisions .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, some of the studies that have included the planning stage into their analysis − have not consistently integrated climate-induced impacts into their modeling framework, which could result in some biases in their results. For example, if a study represented uniform climate-induced impacts throughout the year, it may miss how the heterogeneous seasonal impacts could impact planning decisions . A consistent integration into system-wide analyses is necessary to better comprehend the systemic risks a power grid faces due to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Fonseca

Craig

Jaramillo

et al. 2021

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Electricity grid planners design the system to supply electricity to end-users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. These results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

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“…They report an increase in balancing and reserve needs of up to 5 %. Peter [33] showed that anticipating climate change in power system planning can reduce system costs in 2100. Accordingly, applying an anticipating strategy increases the optimal share of offshore wind power and decreases the share of nuclear, onshore wind and solar PV power.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sensitivity of Power System Expansion Models

Schyska,

Kies,

Schlott

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Power system expansion models are a widely used tool for planning power systems, especially considering the integration of large shares of renewable resources. The backbone of these models is an optimization problem, which depends on a number of economic and technical parameters. Although these parameters contain significant uncertainties, the sensitivity of power system models to these uncertainties is barely investigated.In this work, we introduce a novel method to quantify the sensitivity of power system models to different model parameters based on measuring the additional cost arising from misallocating generation capacities. The value of this method is proven by three prominent test cases: the definition of capital cost, different weather periods and different spatial and temporal resolutions. We find that the model is most sensitive to the temporal resolution. Furthermore, we explain why the spatial resolution is of minor importance and why the underlying weather data should be chosen carefully.

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How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy?

Cited by 41 publications

References 32 publications

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

The Sensitivity of Power System Expansion Models

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