How do probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts compare with other innovations that Australian farmers are encouraged to adopt?

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) from public institutions have been issued to Australian farmers since the late 1980s. Surveys suggest that 30–50% of farmers take seasonal climate forecasts into account when making farm management decisions. Even for the farmers who have adopted SCFs, integrating them into decisions on the farm seems to be a greater challenge than first thought. We use adoption theory to consider SCFs as an innovation presented to farmers. We consider the problem that SCFs is seeking to solve, the nature of the innovation, and how SCFs compare with other innovations that Australian farmers are encouraged to adopt. We conclude that there are unique challenges presented by the problem of managing climate uncertainty. Demonstrating the relative advantage of a probabilistic SCF is difficult because it is an information-based public good, relatively complex, difficult to trial, and only partially compatible with existing practices. In their favour, SCFs are free or relatively low cost and the information can be applied across different paddocks and different enterprises. We compare and contrast SCFs with other innovations that Australian farmers have been encouraged to adopt over their working life time, such as grain-price forecasts, new wheat varieties, the increased use of nitrogen fertiliser, no-tillage, and precision agriculture.

Drivers for the Adoption of Different Eco-Innovation Types in the Fertilizer Sector: A Review

“…When farmers exploit services, they want to see the results in higher yields or input effort. Therefore, the observability of these services is important for the continued use [91,92,133,139]. The same holds true for the quality of the support.…”

“…Other publications have the use of mineral fertilizer in developing countries in focus (e.g., [89,90]). Furthermore, tools for diagnosis to enable a better estimation of the crop nutrient status are evaluated by a number of publications (e.g., [91,92]). A well-established way to maintain soil fertility is the intercropping with, mostly leguminous, intermediate crops.…”

“…The same holds true for the quality of the support. By providing a specific service, a continuous support is necessary [91,92,140]. Here a fluent information flow, which is also important for innovation adoption, is also ensured [91,96,133,141].…”

Preface: Climate Predictions for Better Agricultural Risk Management

“…The discussion surrounding Ash et al (2007), Garbrecht and Schneider (2007), and Hayman et al (2007) highlighted the difficulties farmers have in integrating SCF into their decision making, which were echoed by Nelson et al (2007) in the policy domain. While science is geared towards providing detailed, quantitative solutions to precise questions, decision makers such as farmers and policy makers require holistic evaluations of multiple sources of risk.…”

“…The authors stress the importance of participatory approaches that include all interested parties to ensure success in the development, implementation, and communication of farm-specific prediction products. Hayman et al (2007) report that while 30-50% of Australian farmers take note of SCF, integrating this information into decisions on farm is a greater challenge than first thought. Using adoption theory, they compare probabilistic SCF to other innovations that farmers are encouraged to adopt (e.g.…”