How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

Abstract

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the 1980-2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an unambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.

The effect of child mortality on fertility behaviors is non-linear: new evidence from Senegal

“…The idea that mortality decline alone is not sufficient to trigger net fertility decline can also been found inDoepke (2005),Boucekkine et al (2009) or in the unified growth theory (e.g.,Galor 2005).…”

Child mortality risk and fertility: Evidence from prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV

“…Many studies are purely theoretical (e.g., Becker and Gregg Lewis, 1973;Sah, 1991;Soares, 2005) or rely solely on non-experimental variation in child mortality and fertility (e.g., Angeles, 2010;Ben-Porath, 1976;Boucekkine et al, 2009;Hossain et al, 2007;Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002;Wolpin, 1984). Other studies that exploit quasi-experimental variation in disease risk (e.g., Acemoglu and Johnson, 2007;Durevall and Lindskog, 2011;Fortson, 2009;Juhn et al, 2013;Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012;Kalemli-Ozcan and Turan, 2011;Lucas, 2013) are unable to isolate the effect of child mortality risk from adult mortality and morbidity risk.…”

“…First, numerous studies (e.g., Aksan and Chakraborty, 2012;Angeles, 2010;Ben-Porath, 1976;Boucekkine et al, 2009;Hossain et al, 2007;Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002;Wolpin, 1984;Young, 2005Young, , 2007) examine the effect of child mortality risk on fertility using non-experimental data. Second, other research (e.g., Bleakley and Lange, 2009) examines the effect of child morbidity risk on fertility.…”

“…Broadly speaking, these studies suggest that the fertility response to mortality/morbidity risk may not be uniform. Many studies (e.g., Aksan and Chakraborty, 2012;Angeles, 2010;Ben-Porath, 1976;Bleakley and Lange, 2009;Boucekkine et al, 2009;Hossain et al, 2007;Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002Kalemli-Ozcan and Turan, 2011;Wolpin, 1984;Young, 2005Young, , 2007 find evidence suggesting that fertility may fall in response to decreased mortality/morbidity risk. Other studies (e.g., Ahuja et al, 2008;Durevall and Lindskog, 2011;Fink and Linnemayr, 2009;Juhn et al, 2013;Lucas, 2013) find evidence suggesting that fertility may rise in response to decreased mortality/morbidity risk.…”

On gender and growth: The role of intergenerational health externalities and women's occupational constraints

“…37 This, of course, is a strong property of the model. With a more general utility function, as for instance in Boucekkine et al (2009)), it would not hold.…”