How Do Different Treatments of Catchment Area Affect the Station Level Demand Modeling of Urban Rail Transit?

Abstract

Direct demand modeling is a useful tool to estimate the demand of urban rail transit stations and to determine factors that significantly influence such demand. The construction of a direct demand model involves determination of the catchment area. Although there have been many methods to determine the catchment area, the choice of those methods is very arbitrary. Different methods will lead to different results and their effects on the results are still not clear. This paper intends to investigate this issue by focusing on three aspects related to the catchment area: size of the catchment area, processing methods of the overlapping areas, and whether to apply the distance decay function on the catchment area. Five catchment areas are defined by drawing buffers around each station with radius distance ranging from 300 to 1500 meters with the interval of 300 meters. Three methods to process the overlapping areas are tested, which are the naïve method, Thiessen polygon, and equal division. The effect of distance decay is considered by applying lower weight to the outer catchment area. Data from five cities in the United States are analyzed. Built environment characteristics within the catchment area are extracted as explanatory variables. Annual average weekday ridership of each station is used as the response variable. To further analyze the effect of regression models on the results, three commonly used models, including the linear regression, log-linear regression, and negative binomial regression models, are applied to examine which type of catchment area yields the highest goodness-of-fit. We find that the ideal buffer sizes vary among cities, and different buffer sizes do not have a great impact on the model’s goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy. When the catchment areas are heavily overlapping, dividing the overlapping area by the number of times of overlapping can improve model results. The application of distance decay function could barely improve the model results. The goodness-of-fit of the three models is comparable, though the log-linear regression model has the highest prediction accuracy. This study could provide useful references for researchers and planners on how to select catchment areas when constructing direct demand models for urban rail transit stations.

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