How do differences in interpreting seismic images affect estimates of geological slip rates?

Abstract

Abstract. Uncertainties of geological structural geometry constructed based on seismic reflections can stem from data acquisition, processing, analysis, or interpretation. Uncertainties arising from structural interpretations and subsequent estimates of geological slip have been particularly less quantified and discussed. To illustrate the implications of interpretation uncertainties for seismic potential and structural evolution, I use an example of a shear fault-bend fold in the central Himalaya. I apply a simple solution from the kinematic model of shear fault-bend folding to resolve the geological input slip of given structure and then compare the result with a previous study to show how differences in structural interpretations could impact dependent conclusions. The findings show that only a little variance in interpretations owing to subjectivity or an unclear seismic image could yield geological slip rates differing by up to ∼ 10 mm yr−1, resulting in significantly different scenarios of seismic potential. To reduce unavoidable subjectivity, this study also suggests that the epistemic uncertainty in raw data should be included in interpretations and conclusions.