How did the economic recession (2008–2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

Wegman, Fred; Allsop, Richard; Antoniou, Constantinos; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Elvik, Rune; Lassarre, Sylvain; Lloyd, Daryl; Wijnen, Wim

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2017.01.022

Cited by 54 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(4 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Data on traffic volume throughout this period show a persistent increase in both number of vehicles per head population as well as number of kilometres travelled 32. The economic downturn is reported to have influenced a lowering of RTC fatality rates in other jurisdictions; however, the fastest rates of decline in the Irish paediatric population occurred in the years prior to Ireland entering the recession in 2008 33 34. Furthermore, the earlier surge in population and immigration introduced new risk groups and the volume of cars and kilometres travelled on roads has increased (reportedly 16%).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the earlier surge in population and immigration introduced new risk groups and the volume of cars and kilometres travelled on roads has increased (reportedly 16%). Along with austerity-induced reductions in spending on infrastructure and road maintenance, these factors would have influenced an increase rather than decrease in RTC risk 34 35. The large decline in pedestrian deaths in particular cannot be explained solely by introduction of the legislative changes described which focused mainly on driver behaviour and the main causative factors in RTCs, that is, seatbelt usage, speed and driving under the influence, which would have less influence on fatalities resulting from pedestrian error.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Trends in road transport collision deaths in the Irish paediatric population: a retrospective review of mortality data, 1991–2015

McGarvey

Hamilton

Donnelly

et al. 2019

bmjpo

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ObjectiveTo establish the incidence of road transport collision (RTC) fatalities in the Irish paediatric population, examining trends in fatality rates over a period of 25 years, during which several national road safety interventions were implemented.Study designRetrospective review of death registration details of children 0–19 years in Ireland between January 1991 and December 2015. Trends in mortality rates were investigated using average annual per cent change and Poisson regression analysis.ResultsProportionate RTC mortality, the majority of which occurred on public roads (94.1%, n=1432) increased with age; <0.3% (<1 year), 8.3% (1–14 years) and 18.4% (15–19 years) (2011–2015 average). Over time, rates declined significantly in all age groups; reductions of 79.0% (4.0 to 0.84/100 000, 1–14 years) and 68.4% (15.5 to 4.9/100 000, 15–19 years) resulted in 537 (95% CI 515 to 566) fewer child deaths (1–19 years) over the period 1996–2015. This reduction was evident for both road user types, the greatest decline (84.8%) among pedestrians 1–14 years (2.1 to 0.32/100 000) and the lowest (66.5%) among occupants 15–19 years, the majority of whom were male (12.4 to 4.2/100 000). The rate of decline was greatest during periods coinciding with introduction of targeted interventions. Risk of death in children 1–14 years was halved in the period after 2002 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.52) while in children 15–19 years old, a significantly lower RTC fatality risk was evident after 2006 and 2010 (IRR 0.68 and IRR 0.50).ConclusionChild and adolescent mortality from RTCs has declined dramatically in Ireland, in excess of reductions in overall paediatric mortality. However, rates remain higher than in other EU countries and further effort is required to reduce the number of deaths further, particularly among adolescent males.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in road transport collision deaths in the Irish paediatric population: a retrospective review of mortality data, 1991–2015

McGarvey

Hamilton

Donnelly

et al. 2019

bmjpo

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The third set of analyses included a more narrow age control comparison. This was included to address a concern that the global economic downturn (which occurred around the same time the new GLS was introduced) might have particularly affected younger drivers [ 8 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Associations between graduated driver licensing and road trauma reductions in a later licensing age jurisdiction: Queensland, Australia

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The success of driver graduated licensing systems (GLS) is demonstrated primarily in jurisdictions that licence at young ages with requirements expiring at age 18. In Australia, GLS requirements typically apply for all applicants aged under 25. In 2007, the Queensland licensing system was strengthened, extending the learner and introducing a 100-hour supervised driving requirement, introducing restrictions on passenger carriage at night and high-powered vehicles for provisional drivers, and on phone use for all novice drivers (learner and provisional). The objective of the current research was to evaluate whether these changes were associated with reductions in crashes (all) and killed-and-serious-injury (KSI) crashes involving novice drivers, and respective casualties. Government licensing and police crash records were linked and interrupted time series analysis was used to examine potential shifts in crash trends by rates of licensed drivers per month. Substantial declines were found in novice driver crashes (13.1% per year; 95%CI -0.0130, -0.0096), crash casualties (13.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0137, -0.0101), KSI crashes (5.4% per year; 95%CI -0.0080, -0.0046) and associated casualties (5.2% per year; 95%CI -0.0075, -0.0039). Compared to the total licensed driver population, declines in crashes (3.0% per year; 95%CI -0.0027, -0.0007) and crash casualties (2.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0029, -0.0006) but not KSI outcomes were observed. More narrowly, declines were found for provisional-licensed driver crashes (9.3% per year; 95%CI -0.0096, -0.0063) and KSI crashes (3.6% per year; 95%CI -0.0004, -0.0128) that were approximately 2.6% and 1.2% greater than respective declines for 25-29-year-old open-licensed drivers. Substantial declines also were observed in novice driver single-vehicle, night, passenger and alcohol crashes. Overall, these results demonstrate that GLS can be effective in a later age licensing jurisdiction. However, KSI outcomes were limited. Modelling research is recommended on ways to further strengthen Queensland’s GLS to achieve greater trauma reductions.

show abstract

“…For example, economic development may have an impact on the share of young drivers in traffic volume, the distribution of traffic volume among weekends (or weekend-nights) and weekdays, or the share of high-risk transport modes in the traffic volume (e.g., heavy goods vehicles or bicycles); (3) after the economy has reached a high level, it may have a positive impact on the investments in safety by governments, road users, and companies [23]. In addition to the aforementioned factors, other socioeconomic variables such as land-use characteristics [24], the age distribution of drivers [25], alcohol consumptions [26], unemployment and economic recession [27], decomposition of GDP [28], were found significantly correlated to traffic safety.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

City-Level China Traffic Safety Analysis via Multi-Output and Clustering-Based Regression Models

Yan

Zhu

2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the field of macro-level safety studies, road traffic safety is significantly related to socioeconomic factors, such as population, number of vehicles, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Due to different levels of economic and urbanization, the influence of the predictive factors on traffic safety measurements can differ between cities (or regions). However, such region-level or city-level heterogeneities have not been adequately concerned in previous studies. The objective of this paper is to adopt a novel approach for traffic safety analysis with a dataset containing multiple target variables and samples from different subpopulations. Based on a dataset with annual traffic safety and socioeconomic measurements from 36 major cities in China, we estimate single-output regression models, multi-output regression models, and clustering-based regression models. The results indicate that the 36 cities can be clustered into a metropolitan city class and a non-metropolitan city class, and the class-specified models can notably improve the goodness-of-fit and the interpretability of city-level heterogeneities. Specifically, we note that the effect of primary and secondary industrial GDP on traffic safety is opposite to that of tertiary industrial GDP in the metropolitan city class, while the effects of the two decomposed GDP on traffic safety are consistent in the non-metropolitan city class. We also note that the population has a positive effect on the number of fatalities and the number of injures in metropolitan cities but has no significant influence on traffic safety in non-metropolitan cities.

show abstract

How did the economic recession (2008–2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

Cited by 54 publications

References 33 publications

Trends in road transport collision deaths in the Irish paediatric population: a retrospective review of mortality data, 1991–2015

Trends in road transport collision deaths in the Irish paediatric population: a retrospective review of mortality data, 1991–2015

Associations between graduated driver licensing and road trauma reductions in a later licensing age jurisdiction: Queensland, Australia

City-Level China Traffic Safety Analysis via Multi-Output and Clustering-Based Regression Models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About