How Did the 2018–19 U.S. Tariff Hikes Influence Household Spending?

Nie, Jun; Ende-Becker, Alice von; Yang, Shu-Kuei X.

doi:10.18651/er/v106n4nievonendebeckeryang

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“…Recent research suggests that an increase in retirement is an essential factor in older households' labor supply contraction during the pandemic. Nie and Yang (2021) indicate that the share of retirees in the US population increased sharply during the pandemic, as is shown in Figure 1(a). This pattern contrasts with the Great Recession, when the share remains relatively stable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Also, Albanesi and Kim (2021) stress the role of reduced labor supply during the pandemic, especially that of women. The increase in retirement is one of the vital phenomena associated with this labor supply contraction (Nie and Yang (2021); Davis (2021b)).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Goldman Sachs (2021) Retirement Survey and Insight Reports, 51 percent of respondents retired earlier than expected, and health reasons (24 percent) were the top reason for their retirement. Faria-e Castro (2021), Nie and Yang (2021) point out that health concerns provide natural explanations for a higher retirement rate as older people are more vulnerable to COVID-19 and thus motivated to leave the workforce facing the severe risk of infection at work. Davis (2021b) also suggests that retirement increased significantly in jobs with high physical proximity to others, implying that health concerns play an important role in the retirement decision.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aggregate health shock and retirement decision

Jung

Suh

2023

Macroecon. Dynam.

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The retirement of old workers increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and health concerns are considered to be a critical factor. To understand the effect of pure health concerns during the pandemic, we analyze the impact of the aggregate health shock on retirement decisions using a life cycle model. The aggregate health shock changes the economy from the normal state to the pandemic state, where the probability of adverse idiosyncratic health shock increases, especially if agents are working. Simulation results suggest that the shock accelerates the retirement of agents aged over 60. The increase in retirement is significant even though the shock is expected to be temporary. Also, the effect hinges on the assumption that working poses a greater risk of receiving a negative health shock than retiring. Even accounting for the large income and wealth changes that US households experienced in 2020, a counterfactual experiment suggests that the aggregate health shock plays a prominent role in increasing retirement.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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