How Citation Boosts Promote Scientific Paradigm Shifts and Nobel Prizes

Abstract

Nobel Prizes are commonly seen to be among the most prestigious achievements of our times. Based on mining several million citations, we quantitatively analyze the processes driving paradigm shifts in science. We find that groundbreaking discoveries of Nobel Prize Laureates and other famous scientists are not only acknowledged by many citations of their landmark papers. Surprisingly, they also boost the citation rates of their previous publications. Given that innovations must outcompete the rich-gets-richer effect for scientific citations, it turns out that they can make their way only through citation cascades. A quantitative analysis reveals how and why they happen. Science appears to behave like a self-organized critical system, in which citation cascades of all sizes occur, from continuous scientific progress all the way up to scientific revolutions, which change the way we see our world. Measuring the “boosting effect” of landmark papers, our analysis reveals how new ideas and new players can make their way and finally triumph in a world dominated by established paradigms. The underlying “boost factor” is also useful to discover scientific breakthroughs and talents much earlier than through classical citation analysis, which by now has become a widespread method to measure scientific excellence, influencing scientific careers and the distribution of research funds. Our findings reveal patterns of collective social behavior, which are also interesting from an attention economics perspective. Understanding the origin of scientific authority may therefore ultimately help to explain how social influence comes about and why the value of goods depends so strongly on the attention they attract.

Persistence and uncertainty in the academic career

“…In order to analyze the average properties of N i ðtÞ for all 300 scientists in our sample, we define the normalized trajectory Over this horizon, the stochastic arrival of career shocks can significantly alter the career trajectory (20,24,27,28). Each N 0 i ðtÞ exhibits robust scaling corresponding to the scaling law hN 0 ðtÞi ∼ tᾱ.…”

“…The academic career depends on many factors, such as cumulative advantage (16,19,22,23), the "sacred spark," (24, 25), and other complex aspects of knowledge transfer manifest in our techno-social world (26). To exemplify this complexity, a recent case study on the impact trajectories of Nobel prize winners shows that "scientific career shocks" marked by the publication of an individual's "magnum opus" work(s) can trigger future recognition and reward, resembling the cascading dynamics of earthquakes (27).We model the career trajectory as a sequence of scientific outputs which arrive at the variable rate n i ðtÞ. Because the reputation of a scientist is typically a cumulative representation of his/her Author contributions: A.M.P., M.R…”

Big Data, Privacy, and Trusted Web: What Needs to Be Done

“…• Innovation usually starts off in a minority position [17]. In the beginning, there are a few supporters and customers only.…”

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“…Mazloumian et al [13] characterized how a publication of a landmark paper increases attention paid to author's other papers, leading to a paradigm shift, which may eventually be recognized with a Nobel prize. Chen [34] described the use of a dynamic co-citation network to reveal "intellectual turning point" papers.…”

“…However, this method is problematic, since it takes years for the citation count to reflect the status of a paper. Mazloumian et al [13] argued that paradigm shifts occur because an author's groundbreaking paper boosts attention given to his or her other publications. The boost establishes author's "authority," allowing his breakthrough to successfully compete for attention with an established paradigm.…”