How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling

Cheong, Inkyo; Turakulov, Valijon

doi:10.1111/twec.13195

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…These results also provide directions for the development of further strategic technologies, such as hydrogen or blockchain [32], which should be also studied in a similar mode. The results also allow for further developing methodology, also outlined in previous research [37].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…This study discusses the benefits of Kyrgyzstan's integration with the existing international unions [30], while prospects of a hypothetical union between the Central Asian countries themselves are also studied [31,32]. However, perspectives of such an association are considered uncertain by some experts, being overridden by international unions such as the EAEU [33].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Various Connectivity Processes in Central Asia on Sustainable Development of Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2022

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Kyrgyzstan is facing a strategically important period in its history. The government’s ambition of reindustrializing is affecting its engagement with various international organizations and donors. As these plans will lead to societal transition and affect such areas as social development, national economy, and environment, a careful consideration of their impacts is required, especially given the country’s need to achieve sustainable development. At the same time, the geographical position of Kyrgyzstan puts it at the cross-roads of three distinct regional economic connectivity processes: the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and various connectivity initiatives and projects taking place under the umbrella of the European Union (EU). A major issue is the extent to which Kyrgyzstan can leverage these processes to boost its economic revitalization plans and decarbonize its economy in line with international climate change mitigation and energy security policies, while ensuring a reliable energy supply. As a result, novel governance mechanisms need to be established that address the possible impacts of these economic connectivity processes; this is especially important given the frequently diverging perceptions and opinions of the various Kyrgyz and foreign stakeholders involved in industrial policymaking. Perceptual heterogeneity influences the development of solutions based on compromise and participatory governance that are crucial to implementing different industrial policy options; it also impacts the nature of the economic relationship between Kyrgyzstan and other countries in the Central Asian region. The aim of this paper is to understand the implications of perceptual heterogeneity for the various connectivity processes in Kyrgyzstan, their benefits, and their impacts. The methodology of this paper includes a variety of methods such as surveys and interviews with key stakeholders, scenario development, and participatory workshops in various regions of the country.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Various Connectivity Processes in Central Asia on Sustainable Development of Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2022

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“…14 See, e.g. Mahlstein et al (2022); Chepeliev et al (2022); Cheong & Turakulov (2022); and Bektasoglu et al (2016). 15 As Hillberry & Hummels (2021) report, the GTAP network boasts more than 4,000 active users ('members') and the number of Google Scholar search results for GTAP-related keywords (as a proxy for academic papers applying GTAP) has exceeded 6000 by 2015.…”

Section: Motivation Methodology and Road Mapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing ‘optimal’ sanctions on Russian imports

Schropp

Tsigas²

2023

World Economy

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Restricting Russian imports is an important instrument in Allies' sanction toolbox. Rather than arbitrarily choosing the set of targeted imported products and the level of import tariff increasesm (as is typically done in the literature), we follow the recent contributions on "optimal sanction" strategies. Using GTAP, we endogenize the scope of sectors targeted, the magnitude of tariff increases, and the disbursement of tariff revenues in the context of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This allows us to identify the set of Allied import restrictions that best achieves the Allies' objectives of inflicting the highest economic pain on Russia while at the same time keeping self-harm to Allies as low and as equitably distributed as possible.With regard to scope we find that, instead of targeting Russian imports across the board, the Allies fare better when limiting their import sanctions to products from the eight most-imported Russian sectors. Regarding optimal tariff levels, we find that, rather than imposing all-out import bans, tariff increases in the range of 20 to 25 percentage points best achieve the Allies' objectives. Finally, the Allied coalition could benefit from a burden-sharing arrangement in which proceeds generated from the additional tariff revenues are redistributed among Allies, and other cash transfers are allowed for. Doing so would result in a more equitable distribution of economic losses among Allied countries -at hardly any additional "cost" to the coalition (in terms of extra losses to Allies or reduced losses to Russia). Such an arrangement could significantly strengthen cohesion, resilience, and longevity of the Allied coalition, and thus ought to become a component of an optimal sanction strategy. As an alternative to redistributing tariff revenue among coalition countries, Allies could consider using those funds towards supporting Ukraine directly. Doing so would involve a small sacrifice by Allies and would scarcely compromise the effectiveness of Allied sanctions. However, it could greatly help mitigating the human catastrophe unfolding in and around Ukraine.

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“…Finally, some recent papers have specifically focused on Asia or Asian subregions. More specifically, Central Asia was the focus of Kim, Mariano, and Abesamis (2022) and Cheong and Turakulov (2022), whereas Ismail (2021) investigated digital trade facilitation in selected Asian countries and Ramasamy and Yeung (2019) analyzed the impact of trade facilitation in relation to the People's Republic of China's (PRC) One Belt, One Road initiative. Also, Halaszovich and Kinra (2020) present some insights into trade facilitation in Asia, indicating that the elements of national transportation systems positively influence both trade and foreign direct investment.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade Facilitation and Global Value Chains in a Post-Pandemic World

Martínez‐Zarzoso¹

2023

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The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it examines the effects of the implementation of trade facilitation (TF) measures on international trade flows and on participation in global value chains (GVCs). Second, it provides policy recommendations for developing Asia and the Pacific derived from model estimations. The main focus is to disentangle the effectiveness of a wide range of TF actions taken at a country level and see whether these have paved the way toward more sustainable trade flows. The data used are from the UN Global Surveys on Digital and Sustainable Trade Facilitation, covering 144 countries worldwide for the years 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021. The empirical estimations obtained from a gravity model of trade indicate that TF measures related to transparency, institutions, and formalities are of utmost importance, whereas sustainable TF actions are still in their infancy, and more data are needed for a proper evaluation of their effectiveness. Moreover, the implementation of TF is related to reductions in the time and cost to export and import as well as to improvements in logistic performance. There are several policy recommendations and implications for developing Asia and the Pacific concerning TF, trade, and GVCs: first, transparency policies will increase trade in manufactured goods more than proportionally, especially in low-income countries in Asia (such as Afghanistan,

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How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling

Cited by 5 publications

References 39 publications

Impacts of Various Connectivity Processes in Central Asia on Sustainable Development of Kyrgyzstan

Impacts of Various Connectivity Processes in Central Asia on Sustainable Development of Kyrgyzstan

Designing ‘optimal’ sanctions on Russian imports

Trade Facilitation and Global Value Chains in a Post-Pandemic World

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