How can we estimate carbon emissions and reduction of buildings at the local government level in South Korea?

Abstract

Background and objective: Carbon neutrality must be achieved across societal sectors through carbon neutral policies. Therefore, local governments, which realize the actual greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, must develop GHG reduction strategies. This study aims to present information on the GHG reduction of the building sector (BS) at the local government level, for the carbon neutrality by 2050 (CN).Methods: The gross floor area (GFA) of all buildings and the total floor area of household (HBs), business (BBs), and public buildings (PBs) and by 2050 were predicted using building and demographic information from Jeollanam-do. Buildings were classified as over or under 10 years old. GHG emissions projection by 2050 were combined the GFA prediction results with public information on building energy consumption (BEC). After adjusting the nationwide CN goal for the BS in Jeollanam-do, the pathways for two scenarios were to estimate GHG reduction.Results: HBs showed the steepest increase in GFA, while BBs and PBs showed a very modest increase. About 30% of HBs and BBs were under 10 years and about 70% were over 10 years. The HB's GHG emissions increased remarkably, reflecting the GFA results, while the emissions of BBs and PBs didn't raised much. GHG reduction targets by 2030 were calculated as 1.4, 0.7, and 0.35 million TOE for HBs, BBs, and PBs, respectively. Reduction Scenario 1 shows a straight-line path with a negative slope from 2023. Reduction Scenario 2 shows an increase in emissions after 2023, which begins to decrease from 2028, falling with a curved steep slope until 2035, followed by a very modest decline until 2050.Conclusion: This study calculated GHG emissions from the BS by 2050 using the latest information on BEC and GHG calculation guidelines. The method in this study helps establish regional/local GHG reduction targets, setting scenarios, and estimating GHG reduction.