How Anxiety and Enthusiasm Help Explain the Bandwagon Effect

Abstract

This study investigates the role of emotions in the (bandwagon) effect of opinion polls on vote choice. It combines a media content analysis of poll reporting (N ¼ 2,772) on an individual basis with a two wave panel survey (N ¼ 1,064) during the 2013 German Bundestag election campaign. Results show that anxiety and enthusiasm mediate the effect of poll exposure on vote choice. Furthermore, the effect of polls on vote choice is found to be a consequence of how these polls are presented in the media. Polls are more than neutral interim campaign statistics, as they influence vote choice, and do so partly because of the emotions they evoke. All correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Sjoerd B.

How Election Polls Shape Voting Behaviour

“…Our findings add to a growing literature on bandwagon effects in European democracies (Morton et al ; Stolwijk et al ; Van der Meer et al ). Ongoing debates about dissemination of polls are perhaps even more relevant than ever considering some recent polling and prediction failures by political journalists and pundits (cf Aalberg & van Aelst ; Donsbach ; Petersen ).…”

“…More recent studies have explored the importance of how polls influence vote choice with causal designs and in new contexts. These studies all confirm bandwagon effects in the Netherlands, France, Austria and Germany (Meffert et al 2011;Morton et al 2015;Stolwijk et al 2016;Van der Meer et al 2016). Using a strong causal design in a new context, we situate our research alongside these recent contributions to further expand the scope of the bandwagon effect and replicate it in yet another context with its own distinct political culture.…”

More interest in interest: Does poll coverage help or hurt efforts to make more young voters show up at the ballot box?

“…Although other studies document the role that emotions might play in the effect of poll exposure (e.g. Stolwijk et al, 2016), it played little role for young voters in this campaign. As suggested above, this might be because the complex electoral system of the EP complicates determining clear winners and losers (cf.…”

“…Gratification is often seen as an emotional process: voters are seeking emotional rewards. Positive poll coverage has been associated with a bandwagon effect in which voters are drawn into the enthusiasm of the winning party (Robinson, 1937), while negative poll coverage is associated with inciting fear of the prospect of a liked party losing or a disliked party winning (Moy and Rinke, 2012;Stolwijk et al, 2016). Poll coverage offers voters the option to find gratification in an election by joining the bandwagon, and reduce their fear of voting for a losing party.…”

All in the game: Effects of opinion polls on party coverage in the 2013 German election campaign

“…There is growing evidence of a bandwagon effect of favorable poll reporting resulting in an extra boost for the front runner candidate/party as voters are drawn to the likely winner (Van Der Meer et al, 2016). The enthusiasm of the crowds gives a party momentum and induces a positive spiral since favorable poll ratings shed a more positive light on a party and further increase support for it (Stolwijk et al, 2017). Most studies investigate the effect of polls on voters (see Hardmeier, 2008), but much less attention is given to their effect on news selection and coverage, in terms of the amount and tone of a party's media portrayal (Green-Pedersen et al, 2017).…”