How accurate are radiography and computed tomography in the diagnosis of COVID-19?—A Bayesian approach

Abstract

Background The role of radiology in patients with clinical suspicion of COVID-19 is evolving with scientific evidence, but there are differences in opinion on when and how the technique should be used for clinical diagnosis. Purpose To estimate the pre-test and post-test probability that a patient has COVID-19 in the event of a positive and/or negative result from chest X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT) radiological studies, comparing with those of real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. Methods The literature on the sensitivity and specificity of the chest X-ray, chest CT, and RT-PCR was reviewed. Based on these reported data, the likelihood ratios (LR) were estimated and the pre-test probabilities were related to the post-test probabilities after positive or negative results. Results The chest X-ray has only a confirmatory value in cases of high suspicion. Chest CT analyses showed that when it is used as a general study, it has almost confirmatory value under high clinical suspicion. A chest CT classified with CO-RADS ≥ 4 has almost a diagnostic certainty of COVID-19 even with moderate or low clinical presumptions, and the CO-RADS 5 classification is almost pathognomonic before any clinical presumption. To rule out COVID-19 completely is only possible in very low clinical assumptions with negative RT-PCR and/or CT. Conclusions Chest X-ray and especially CT are fast studies that have the capacity to report high probability of COVID-19, being a real contribution to the concept of “probable case” and allowing support to be installed in an early and timely manner.