How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model

Abstract

Current-climate precipitation and temperature extremes have been identified by decision makers in West Africa as among the more impactful weather events causing lasting socioeconomic damage. In this article, we use a plausible future-climate scenario (RCP8.5) for the end of the twenty-first century to explore the relative commonness of such extremes under global warming. The analysis presented considers what a typical day in the future climate will feel like relative to current extrema. Across much of West Africa, we see that the typical future-climate day has maximum and minimum temperatures greater than 99.5% of currently experienced values. This finding exists for most months but is particularly pronounced during the Boreal spring and summer. The typical future precipitation event has a daily rainfall rate greater than 95% of current storms. These findings exist in both a future scenario model run with and without parameterised convection, and for many of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project version 5 ensemble members. Additionally, agronomic monsoon onset is projected to occur later and have greater inter-annual variability in the future. Our findings suggest far more extreme conditions in future climate over West Africa. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation could have serious socioeconomic implications, stressing the need for effective mitigation given the potential lack of adaptation pathways available to decision makers.

Multivariate Bias‐Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Change Simulations for West Africa: Performance and Climate Change Implications

“…CCLM and WRF are consistent regarding the projections of the very hot days, which is similar to the findings of Fitzpatrick et al. (2020) and Nangombe et al. (2019).…”

“…The increase in very hot days persists throughout the whole domain in all models. CCLM and WRF are consistent regarding the projections of the very hot days, which is similar to the findings of Fitzpatrick et al (2020) and Nangombe et al (2019). It must be noted that it is difficult to determine which predicted result is the most accurate among the four models in these five climatic regions as the individual models have very different behaviors.…”

How do high ambient temperatures affect infant feeding practices? A prospective cohort study of postpartum women in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso

“…However, such studies are not sufficient to demonstrate an effect of ambient temperature as the competing time demands of women’s domestic and agricultural workloads,10 30–33 as well as other potentially important drivers (eg, household food security), also vary with season and weather in rural settings 33 34. With daily temperatures in West Africa expected to exceed 50°C in some regions,35 further research is essential so that maternal and child health programmes can be updated.…”

Future Changes in African Heatwaves and Their Drivers at the Convective Scale

“…There is mounting evidence that heatwaves, regardless of definition, have increased in intensity, frequency, and duration over Africa over the last three decades (Ceccherini et al 2017;Fontaine et al 2013;Lyon 2009;Moron et al 2016;Seneviratne et al 2021). The IPCC Working Group 1 Sixth Assessment Report (Seneviratne et al 2021) states that at the continental scale, it is "very likely" the intensity and frequency of African hot extremes will increase even under 1.58C global warming, and the changes are "virtually certain" to occur under 48C global warming (Dosio 2017;Fitzpatrick et al 2020a;Perkins-Kirkpatrick;Lewis 2020;Russo et al 2016). Vicedo-Cabrera et al (2021) attribute more than 40% of heat-related mortality in South Africa during the period 1991-2018 to human-induced climate change.…”