Housing market impairment from future sea-level rise inundation

Rodziewicz, David; Amante, Christopher; Dice, Jacob; Wahl, Eugene R.

doi:10.1007/s10669-022-09842-6

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The fusion could be used to investigate the timing of when thresholds may be crossed (Hermans et al, 2023;Slangen et al, 2022). The fusion could be used to investigate economic impacts, such as impairment of housing markets due to inundation (Rodziewicz et al, 2022). The fusion could determine the timing of "cut-off probabilities", beyond which a proposed investment decision becomes undesirable (Stroombergen & Lawrence, 2022).…”

Section: A Flexible Tool For Climate Scientistsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Probabilistic projections feature prominently in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Fox-Kemper et al, 2021). Probabilistic projections support scientific research, assessments of physical climate risk, and adaptation planning (Hermans et al, 2023;Rasmussen et al, 2020;Rodziewicz et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea-Level Rise

Grandey,

Dauwels,

Koh

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Alternative projections of sea-level rise from ice sheet mass loss differ markedly. The differences drive ambiguity in probabilistic projections of sea level. Can the alternative projections be combined to produce a single probabilistic projection that quantifies a best estimate of the scientific uncertainty? To produce this best estimate, we propose a fusion of alternative projections. The fusion combines the complementary strengths of the ‘medium confidence’ and the ‘low confidence’ projections. Two assumptions undergird the fusion. First, we assume that the ‘medium confidence’ projections reliably sample the most-likely central possibilities. Second, we assume that the p-box outer bound – which includes the ‘low confidence’ projections – provides a more reliable estimate of unlikely tail possibilities driven by poorly-understood processes. Accordingly, the fusion is weighted towards the ‘medium confidence’ projections near the median and towards the p-box outer bound near the tails. We demonstrate our proposed fusion by combining alternative projections of sea-level change at the end of the 21st century. The fusion provides probabilistic answers: according to the fusion, the probability of global mean sea-level change exceeding 1.0 m by 2100 is 6% under a low-emissions scenario and 31% under a high-emissions scenario. The fusion also informs summary statements based on credible intervals: under a high-emissions scenario, for example, we are 90% certain that global mean sea level will rise by 0.5–2.2 m during the 21st century. By quantifying a best estimate of scientific uncertainty, the fusion caters to diverse users.

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Section: A Flexible Tool For Climate Scientistsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea-Level Rise

Grandey,

Dauwels,

Koh

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Indicator Based Approach and Geospatial Technology for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment along Chennai District Coast, Tamil Nadu State, India

et al. 2023

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Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future

Wahl¹,

Zorita

Díaz

et al. 2022

Commun Earth Environ

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Intense drought has occurred in the United States Southwest this century, causing unprecedented stress to water resources. Here we use paleoclimate and instrumental records to establish that the recent temperature rise is incompatible with random draws from past fluctuations, including the current period of warming. Consistent with and extending previous reconstructions, we find that the ongoing drought is the most intense at the 21-year scale back to 600 CE. Evaluation using standardized regression coefficients shows that recent warming damps the effect of moisture delivery on the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index by approximately one-third. The probability of full recovery of the current moisture deficit is unlikely even by mid-century and about five percent in 10-15 years. Evaluation of future climate simulations indicates increasing regional temperature stress and soil moisture depletion, and coupled with long recovery periods for moisture delivery, very low chance for regional mega-reservoirs to regain full-capacity levels assuming current demand.

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Housing market impairment from future sea-level rise inundation

Cited by 4 publications

References 47 publications

Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea-Level Rise

Fusion of Probabilistic Projections of Sea-Level Rise

Indicator Based Approach and Geospatial Technology for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment along Chennai District Coast, Tamil Nadu State, India

Southwestern United States drought of the 21st century presages drier conditions into the future

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