Household Welfare Implications of Better Fertilizer Access and Lower Use Inefficiency: Long-Term Scenarios for Ethiopia

Abstract

High population growth in Ethiopia is aggravating farmland scarcity, as the agrarian share of the population stays persistently high, and also creates increasing demand for food and non-food biomass. Based on this fact, this study investigates welfare implications of intensification measures like interventions that improve access and use efficiency to modern farming inputs. Using a dynamic meso-economic modeling framework for Ethiopia, ex-ante scenarios that simulate a) decreased costs of fertilizer use and b) elevated efficiency of fertilizer application for all crops are run for a period of 20 years. Fertilizer-yield response functions are estimated (based on results from an agronomic crop model and actual survey data) and embedded into the economic model in order to get realistic marginal returns to fertilizer application. This is our novel methodological contribution in which we introduce how to calculate input use inefficiency based on attainable yield levels from agronomic crop model and actual yield levels. Simultaneous implementation of these interventions lead to annual yield increases of 8.7 percent for an average crop farmer compared to the current level. Increased fertilizer application is also found to be profitable for an average farmer despite price reduction for crops following increased market supply. As a result of price and income effects of the interventions, all household types exhibit welfare gain. Non-farming households, being net consumers, enjoy lower costs of living. Rural farming households enjoy even higher welfare gain than non-farming households because they consume a higher share from crop commodities that become cheaper, and because their farming profits increase.

Prevalence and Associated Factors of Agricultural Technology Adoption and Teff Productivity in Basso Liben District, East Gojjame Zone, North west Ethiopia

“…This result lower than to the previous studies in Ethiopia 71.6 kg/hectare(24), Amhara regional state 52.85 kg/hectare(31). On the other hand the current result was higher than study in Ethiopia 38 kg/hectare(32). This is not consistent with the extension recommendations that require proper combination of DAP and UREA.…”

Measuring the poverty reduction effects of adopting agricultural technologies in rural Ethiopia: findings from an endogenous switching regression approach

“…Hence, various studies conducted around the world and in Ethiopia have suggested that agricultural technologies have the capability of reducing poverty in large scale. For example, the adoption of alternative farming technologies has been found to significantly increase yields, increase farm income, increase household consumption, improve nutrition, and generally improves household welfare ( Sebsibie et al., 2015 ; Hagos, 2016 ; Tesfaye et al., 2016 ; Alwang et al., 2017; Belete and Melak, 2018 ; Akinrinola and Adeyemo, 2018 ; Adebayo et al., 2018 ; Ahmed and Anang., 2019 ; Verkaart et al., 2019 ; Natnael, 2019 ; Legesse et al., 2019 ; Tesfay, 2020 ; Biru et al., 2020 ; Teka and Lee, 2020 ; Abewa et al., 2020 ; Ayenew et al., 2020 ; Shita et al., 2020 ; Belay and Mengiste, 2021 ; Habtewold, 2021 ; Wordofa et al., 2021 ).…”

“…(2016) used improved wheat for Ethiopia, Alwang et al. (2017) used germplasm improvement research for two African countries, Belete and Melak (2018) used small scale irrigation technology for the Amhara region of Ethiopia, Ahmed and Anang (2019) used improved maize varieties for Ghana, Legesse et al. (2019) used better access to fertilizers for Ethiopia, Natnael (2019) used the Teff variety for Ethiopia, Tesfay (2020) used fertilizer for Ethiopia, Ayenew et al.…”

Determinants of inorganic fertilizer use by smallholder farmers in South Wollo and Oromia special administrative zones, Ethiopia

“…Similarly, the imbalance between the population growth rate and the agricultural production growth rate is one of the prominent national problems in Ethiopia (Abebe & Debebe, 2020). The rapid population growth in Ethiopia is aggravating farmland scarcity especially for youths and creates a high demand for food and non-food items (Legesse et al, 2019). Increasing inorganic fertilizer application allows farmers to gain better welfare (Legesse et al, 2019).…”

“…The rapid population growth in Ethiopia is aggravating farmland scarcity especially for youths and creates a high demand for food and non-food items (Legesse et al, 2019). Increasing inorganic fertilizer application allows farmers to gain better welfare (Legesse et al, 2019). Even the non-farming communities can enjoy a lower cost of food items as being a net consumer in today's inflated market.…”