Household Overspending Model Amongst B40, M40 and T20 using Classification Algorithm

Abstract

The family economy is a critical indicator of the well-being of a family institution. It can be seen by the total income and how well the household finances is managed. In Malaysia, the household income level is categorized as B40, M40 and T20. These categories can also indicate the poverty level of the household. Overspending is a phenomenon where the monthly expenses are more than the household's total income, which affects economic wellbeing. Finding important factors that affect the spending patterns among the household can reveal the causes of overspending. It will assist the government in mitigating such problems. Availability of 4 million household expenditure records obtained from the survey conducted in 2016 by the Department of Statistics Malaysia eases the aim of this study to develop a household overspending model by using machine learning. The model is developed using 12 household demographic attributes with 14451 household records. The attributes are the number of households, area, state, strata, race, highest certificate, marital status, gender, housing, income, total expenditure, and category as attributes class. The model development employs five machine learning algorithms namely decision tree, Naïve Bayes, Neural network, Support Vector Machines, Nearest Neighbour. The results show that the decision tree through J48 algorithm has produced the easiest rule to be interpreted. The model shows four attributes which were income, state, races and number of households that highly influence the overspending problem. Based on the research finding, it can be concluded that these attributes are essential for improving the indicator measure for Malaysian Family Wellbeing Index in the aspect of overspending.

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