Hot weather warning might help to reduce elderly mortality in Hong Kong

Chau, Pui Hing; Chan, Kate Ching Ching; Woo, Jean

doi:10.1007/s00484-009-0232-5

Cited by 81 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…Warmer climates also typically show relatively small daily temperature variations in comparison with temperate climates, and heat effects tend to be smaller than those in the temperate locations (Anderson and Bell 2009). Our results and other recent findings have shown, however, that even in warmer climates the population demonstrates an elevated risk of mortality during unusually hot days and that a relative measure seems to be a better predictor of the heatrelated vulnerability than an absolute measure (Gouveia et al 2003;Anderson and Bell 2009;Chau et al 2009;Tong et al 2010;Yu et al 2010). Even though several measures of thermal stress were used in previous studies (Basu et al 2008;Zanobetti and Schwartz 2008;Papanastasiou et al 2010), a systematic assessment of the performances of these indices at a single location has rarely been conducted.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 45%

Do Biometeorological Indices Improve Modeling Outcomes of Heat-Related Mortality?

Vaneckova¹,

Neville²,

Tippett³

et al. 2011

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Various biometeorological indices and temperature measures have been used to assess heat-related health risks. Composite indices are expected to assess human comfort more accurately than do temperature measures alone. The performances of several common biometeorological indices and temperature measures in evaluating the heat-related mortality in Brisbane, Australia-a city with a subtropical climate-were compared. Daily counts of deaths from organic causes [International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 9th Revision, (ICD9) codes 001-799 and ICD, 10th Revision, (ICD10) codes A00-R99] during the period from 1 January 1996 to 30 November 2004 were used. Several composite biometeorological indices were considered, such as apparent temperature, relative strain index, Thom discomfort index, the humidex, and wetbulb globe temperature. Hot days were defined as those days falling into the 95th percentile of each thermal stress indicator. Case-crossover analysis was applied to estimate the relationship between exposure to heat and mortality. The performances of various biometeorological indices and temperature measures were compared using the jackknife resampling method. The results show that more deaths were likely to occur on hot days than on other (i.e., control) days regardless of the temperature measure or biometeorological index that is considered. The magnitude of the odds ratios varied with temperature indicators, between 1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.14] and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.22-1.64) after adjusting for air pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 mm and ozone). Average temperature performed similarly to the composite indices, but minimum and maximum temperatures performed relatively poorer. Thus, average temperature may be suitable for the development of weather-health warning systems if the findings presented herein are confirmed in different locations.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 45%

Do Biometeorological Indices Improve Modeling Outcomes of Heat-Related Mortality?

Vaneckova¹,

Neville²,

Tippett³

et al. 2011

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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“…Hong Kong has a subtropical climate, of which the summer (May-September) is hot and humid. There is much concern about the public health threat of elevated temperatures, especially considering the potential impacts of climate change and the increased heat island effects in urban settings (Chau et al 2009;Chan et al 2012;Goggins et al 2012). However, studies focusing on the effect of low temperature on the mortality in Hong Kong remain scarce.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Chan

2014

Int J Biometeorol

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Although interest in assessing the impacts of hot temperature and mortality in Hong Kong has increased, less evidence on the effect of cold temperature on mortality is available. We examined both the effects of heat and cold temperatures on daily mortality in Hong Kong for the last decade (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011). A quasi-Poisson model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures on cause-specific and age-specific mortality.Non-linear effects of temperature on mortality were identified. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with cold temperature (11.1°C, 1 st percentile of temperature) relative to 19.4°C(25 th percentile of temperature) was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.29) for lags 0-13. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with high temperature (31.5°C, 99 th percentile of temperature) relative to 27.8°C (75 th percentile of temperature) was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.17) for lags 0-3. In Hong Kong, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. The effect of cold lasted longer and greater than that of heat. People older than 75 years were the most vulnerable group to cold temperature, while people aged 65-74 were the most vulnerable group to hot temperature.Our findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies for extreme cold and hot temperatures.

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“…Many of the ambulatory visits might be preventable if the patients were more aware of weather-related triggers and took the necessary preventive measures (Barnett 2006;Chau et al 2009;Kim et al 2008). The knowledge gained through this study could contribute to a prevention tool for high risk populations such as elderly COPD patients.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of air pressure, humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed on ambulatory visits due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Bavaria, Germany

et al. 2011

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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in the world. The disease is often aggravated by periods of increased symptoms requiring medical attention. Among the possible triggers for these exacerbations, meteorological factors are under consideration. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of various meteorological factors on the health status of patients with COPD. For this purpose, the daily number of ambulatory care visits due to COPD was analysed in Bavaria, Germany, for the years 2006 and 2007. The meteorological factors were provided by the model at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). For the multivariate analysis, a generalised linear model was used. In Bavaria, an increase of 1% of daily consultations (about 103 visits per day) was found to be associated with a change of 0.72 K temperature, 209.55 of log air surface pressure in Pa, and a decrease of 1% of daily consultations with 1,453,763 Ws m(2) of solar radiation. There also seem to be regional differences between north and south Bavaria; for instance, the effect of wind speed and specific humidity with a lag of 1 day were only significant in the north. This study could contribute to a tool for the prevention of exacerbations. It also serves as a model for the further evaluation of the impact of meteorological factors on health, and could easily be applied to other diseases or other regions.

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Hot weather warning might help to reduce elderly mortality in Hong Kong

Cited by 81 publications

References 27 publications

Do Biometeorological Indices Improve Modeling Outcomes of Heat-Related Mortality?

Do Biometeorological Indices Improve Modeling Outcomes of Heat-Related Mortality?

Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong: a time series analysis

Influence of air pressure, humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed on ambulatory visits due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Bavaria, Germany

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