Hot hands and equilibrium

How should “hot” players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness

“…Accordingly, no other cues, i.e., a streaky shooting performance, are 1586 P. Csapo et al considered if a player is double-teamed, and the first option which comes into the players' minds in these situations is to pass the ball. Given that the performance of players after a hot streak is somewhat elevated as shown by Aharoni and Sarig (2012) and Csapo et al (2014), the observed use of the hot-hand heuristic by coaches can indeed be ecologically rational in the context of our experimental study since it leads exceptionally high-performing players to pass the ball instead of shooting themselves. However, the indirect consequences of increasing the pressure on a streaky player also have to be considered, as it might entail the risk that another player is left open.…”

“…Defence: one-on-one Defence: double-team explanation for the findings of Aharoni and Sarig (2012) and Csapo et al (2014), as the changes in the players' shot-taking behaviour may have indeed occurred due to higher defensive pressure. Similarly to coaches, players were likely to display hot-hand behaviour as they were generally more prone to shoot after a streaky than a non-streaky sequence.…”

“…Strategic adjustments include to double-team the hot player or to guard him more closely. However, merely two studies (i.e., Aharoni & Sarig, 2012;Csapo, Avugos, Raab, & Bar-Eli, 2014) actually examined changes in the shot-taking behaviour of streaky players and related these findings to potential defensive adjustments. Both studies found that a hot-hand effect indeed exists but is masked by increases in shot difficulty.…”

“…The study by Aharoni and Sarig (2012) examined changes in shot difficulty following the detection of a hot player. The authors concluded that hot players tended to attempt more difficult shots, whereas their teammates attempted easier ones -a potential indication that the defensive focus may have shifted towards the hot player.…”

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

“…The most notable concern with in‐game field goal data is that the opposing team has incentive to make costly strategic adjustments to mitigate the impact of the “hot” player ( Dixit and Nalebuff (, p. 17)). This concern has been emphasized by researchers in the hot hand literature ( Aharoni and Sarig (), Green and Zwiebel ()), and is not merely theoretical, as it has a strong empirical basis. While GVT observed that a shooter's field goal percentage is lower after consecutive successes, subsequent studies have shown that with even partial controls for defensive pressure (and shot location), this effect is eliminated ( Rao (), Bocskocsky, Ezekowitz, and Stein ()).…”