Hoping for Peace during Protracted Conflict: Citizens’ Hope Is Based on Inaccurate Appraisals of Their Adversary’s Hope for Peace

Leshem, Oded Adomi; Halperin, Eran

doi:10.1177/0022002719896406

Cited by 13 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Accordingly, we expect both indicators to react similarly to the conflict's events. Nevertheless, we analyze them separately because their core sentiments-ideological preference and pragmatic expectation-are interrelated but not analytically identical (Leshem and Halperin 2020). While their similarities and differences are outside the scope of this article, identifying potential variations and parallels can add further depth to our analysis and directions for future research.…”

Section: The Israeli Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

Yakter

Harsgor²

2022

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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A large literature examines how citizens in violent conflicts react to the conflict's events, particularly violent escalations. Nevertheless, the temporal nature of these attitudinal changes remains under-studied. We suggest that popular reactions to greater violence are typically immediate but brief, indicating short-term emotional responses to physical threats. Over the longer term, however, public opinion is more commonly shaped by non-violent events signaling the adversary's perceived intentions, reflecting slower but deeper belief-updating processes. We support this argument using dynamic analyses of comprehensive monthly data from Israel spanning two full decades (2001–20). Rather than violence levels, we find that long-term changes in Jewish attitudes on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict follow non-violent events implying Palestinian preferences, particularly failed negotiations and out-group leadership changes. Our findings underscore the importance of public opinion's temporal dynamics and show that non-violent events, which are often overlooked in the literature, play a prominent role in shaping long-term attitudes in conflictual contexts.

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Section: The Israeli Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

Yakter

Harsgor²

2022

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

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“…We utilized the Adherence to the Ethos of Conflict scale (55) to measure dovish/hawkish ideologies of Jewish-Israelis and Palestinians. The scale is used to gauge core conflict-related attitudes (e.g., The exclusive right of the (Jews/Palestinians) over the Land of (Israel/Palestine) results from it being our historic homeland) and is comparable across the two societies (56). Participants were asked to rate the extent to which they agreed with six ethos of conflict principles (1: totally disagree, 5: totally agree).…”

Section: Covariatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lay theories of peace and their influence on policy preference during violent conflict

Leshem

Halperin

2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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We often talk about peace as if the concept is self-explanatory. Yet people can have various theories about what peace “is.” In this study, we examine the lay theories of peace of citizens embroiled in a prolonged ethnonational conflict. We show that lay theories of peace 1) depend on whether one belongs to the high-power or low-power party and 2) explain citizens’ fundamental approaches to conflict resolution. Specifically, we explore the link between power asymmetry, lay theories of peace, and preference for conflict resolution strategies within large-scale samples of Palestinian residents of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and Jewish residents of Israel. Results reveal that members of the high-power group (in this case Jewish-Israelis) are more likely to associate peace with harmonious relationships (termed “positive peace”) than with the attainment of justice (termed “structural peace”), while members of the low-power group (in this case Palestinians) exhibit an opposite pattern. Yet both groups firmly and equally interpret peace as the termination of war and bloodshed (termed “negative peace”). Importantly, across societies, associating peace with negative peace more than with positive or structural peace predicts citizens’ desire for a solution that entails the partition of land (the Two-State Solution) whereas associating peace with structural or positive peace more than with negative peace predicts citizens’ desire to solve the conflict by sharing the land (the One-State Solution). This study demonstrates the theoretical and policy-relevant utility of studying how those most affected by war understand the concept of peace.

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“…We have reported elsewhere on two interesting findings. The first is that Jewish-Israelis and Palestinians form their hopes for peace based, to some extent, on their erroneous appraisals of their "enemy's" hope (Leshem and Halperin 2020a). It seems that members of both groups underestimate their adversary's wish for peace, and this, in turn, leads them to decrease their own wishes and expectations for peace.…”

Section: Sociopsychological Antecedences Of Hope For Peacementioning

confidence: 99%

Hope During Conflict

Leshem

Halperin

2020

Historical and Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Hope

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The most deeply rooted international conflicts are termed intractable conflicts. Intractable conflicts are violent disputes that demand extensive investment from the rival parties and persist for a long time. These conflicts also share a more subjective quality: those embroiled in such severe disputes perceive them as innately irresolvable. Unsurprisingly, after decades of intergroup violence and hostility, citizens’ hope for peace is almost absent. Yet hope is an essential component in the pursuit of any political change, including the pursuit of peace. To promote the resolution of intractable conflicts, it is vital to accurately assess the levels of hope for peace in these severe disputes and explore hope’s origins and broader political consequences. This chapter addresses some of these issues by presenting the findings of a large-scale survey on hope for peace administered in one of the most longstanding intractable disputes today, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The survey is part of a larger global attitudes project that aims to map the hopes for peace of citizens living in conflict zones. Examining hope for peace among Palestinians from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and Jews from Israel, this chapter reaveals some of the demographic and sociopolitical antecedes of hope for peace and demonstrate hope’s effect on braoder political attitudes. Overall, findings suggest that hope is not only an obvious outcome of a successful peace process; it is also one of its sources.

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Hoping for Peace during Protracted Conflict: Citizens’ Hope Is Based on Inaccurate Appraisals of Their Adversary’s Hope for Peace

Cited by 13 publications

References 68 publications

Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

Long-Term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Perspective

Lay theories of peace and their influence on policy preference during violent conflict

Hope During Conflict

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