Homicídios de mulheres nas distintas regiões brasileiras nos últimos 35 anos: análise do efeito da idade-período e coorte de nascimento

Abstract

The aim of this study is to estimate the effects of age-period-birth cohort (APC) on

Temporal trend of the homicide rate of Brazilian women

“…Still, the highest mortality rates were found in the second and third decades of life. In addition, it was the younger age groups that presented a statistically significant increase in mortality, as observed in other investigations (8,11) . Deaths occurring during this phase of the life cycle promote a great socioeconomic impact, with great loss of potential life years, with intense physical and psychological suffering for the relatives of victims.…”

“…Once the death registration was corrective, the mortality rates were calculated, and population data were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System, based on the population census of the years 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010, knowing that inter census projections for populations for July 1 of the inter census years were estimated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. In order to control the effect of the age structure, which is different among the studied regions, it was decided to standardize the average and annual mortality rates using the direct method, using the female population of the 2010 Census as a standard population (11) . Next, the exploratory analysis of the temporal trend of corrected homicide mortality rates was performed using standard line graphs of the mortality coefficients, second year and state, after smoothing the historical series by triennial moving averages.…”

“…It should be noted that the number of deaths expected for each year represented the dependent variable; and the centralized calendar year, the independent variable. In this analysis, it was decided to estimate weighted regression models, proportional to the population size, adding parameter known as offset that consisted of the logarithm of the population of each locality (11,13) , given by the following equation:…”

“…The trend was classified as stationary, decreasing or ascending, according to the Relative Risk value, calculated by the exponentiation of the regression coefficient (e β 1 (t-E(t)) ) and its 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI). The series are classified stationary, descending and ascending by the evaluation of Relative Risk and respective 95% CI, namely: stationary, when the 95% CI contains the value 1; descendant, when Relative Risk and 95% CI contain values less than 1; and ascendant, when Relative Risk and 95% CI presented values above 1 (11,13) .…”

“…Therefore, because it is understood that feminicide is also a public health problem in Brazil (11)(12) , with an increased risk of death from this cause in women living in the Northeast of Brazil in the first fifteen years of the 21st century (11) , this study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of homicide mortality rates in women in the states of the Northeast Region of Brazil.…”