Homicides of black people in Brazil: A study of different regions, using generalized additive regression models-with a geo-spatial component

Abstract

The number of homicides in Brazil has reached record numbers, and when the race/colour of the victims is considered-an extreme inequality is evident- with a particularly high number of deaths in black and brown populations. The goal of this work was to analyse homicide rates of black people in Brazil from the years 2000 to 2016, using generalized additive regression models, with a geo-spatial component. The statistics were applied to understand the social reasons for homicide risks in the black population in Brazil’s 26 states and Federal District with reference to the human development index and its components (education, longevity and income) as well as social inequality indices (Gini and Theil). This socioecological, epidemiological study to estimate the risk of homicide in the black population with a time series component, shows that this risk has increased linearly over time. Less longevity and low income correlated with a greater risk of homicide-while the Gini and Theil indices showed that in places where there are greater inequalities, there is also a higher risk of homicide in both black and non-black populations. The results - regarding the possibility of relating social indicators to homicide risk in the regional units under study, would support implementation of interventional public policy measures.