Homicides during the Barranquilla Carnival, Colombia: A 10 Year Time-Series Analysis

Abstract

Homicides are currently the third leading cause of death among young adults, and an increase has been reported during holidays. The aim of the present study was to explore whether an association exists between Carnival in Barranquilla, Colombia, and an increase in homicides in the city. We used mortality records to identify the number of daily homicides of men and women throughout the week of Carnival, and we compared those with records from all of standard days between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015. Conditional fixed-effects models were used, stratified by time and adjusted by weather variables. The average number of homicides on Carnival days was found to be higher than on a standard day, with an OR of 2.34 (CI 95%: 1.19–4.58) for the occurrence of at least one male homicide per day during Carnival, and 1.22 (CI 95%: 1.22–7.36) for female homicides, adjusted by weather variables. The occurrence of homicides during Carnival was observed and was similar to findings for other holidays. Given that violence is a multifactorial phenomenon, the identification of the factors involved serves as a basis for evaluating whether current strategies have a positive effect on controlling it.