Holocene Hydroclimate of the Subtropical Mexico: A State of the Art

Roy, Priyadarsi D.; Quiroz‐Jiménez, Jesús D.; Chávez-Lara, Claudia M.; Sánchez‐Zavala, José L.

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-31719-5_3

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…For example, Thornthwaite's aridity index (Arid) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) had a higher permutation importance in the south and the west, while maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) and growing degrees day (GDD5) had a higher permutation importance in the north and east. This geographic variation in variable importance most likely reflects the north to south shifts in precipitation systems and mean annual temperatures, as well as the rain shadow precipitation gradient extending east from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains through the Midwestern United States, that shaped the current structure and distribution of the North American grassland biome (Anderson, 2006 ; Roy et al, 2019 ). For a grassland reptile, aridity and precipitation, as drivers of drought, are more likely to play a role in limiting the distribution of the species in the southwest (Holycross, 2020 ; Prugh et al, 2018 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 25 degree span in latitude for the North American grassland biome is characterized by a gradient of mean annual temperatures ranging from 2.8°C in Regina, Canada settled within the northern mixed grass prairie to 22.6°C in Monterrey, Mexico at the edge of Chihuahuan Desert grasslands (Anderson, 2006 ). Precipitation systems shift from north to south in this biome with a greater percentage of annual precipitation falling in the winter around southern Canada, then in spring and summer throughout the central US to northern Texas, and finally summer monsoons and tropical storms contribute more to annual precipitation in the Chihuahuan Desert grasslands of the southwestern US and northern and central Mexico (Roy et al, 2019 ; Tang & Reiter, 1984 ). Changes in the magnitude and geographical ranges of these precipitation systems over millennia have altered both the overall availability and seasonal distribution of moisture and consequently, droughts, which has caused restricted extinctions and significantly influenced the evolutionary history of grassland plant and animal populations (Metcalfe et al, 1997 ; Steinauer & Collins, 1996 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus)

Walkup¹,

Lawing

Hibbitts

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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The western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus) is a small pit viper with an extensive geographic range, yet observations of this species are relatively rare. They persist in patchy and isolated populations, threatened by habitat destruction and fragmentation, mortality from vehicle collisions, and deliberate extermination. Changing climates may pose an additional stressor on the survival of isolated populations. Here, we evaluate historic, modern, and future geographic projections of suitable climate for S. tergeminus to outline shifts in their potential geographic distribution and inform current and future management. We used maximum entropy modeling to build multiple models of the potential geographic distribution of S. tergeminus. We evaluated the influence of five key decisions made during the modeling process on the resulting geographic projections of the potential distribution, allowing us to identify areas of model robustness and uncertainty. We evaluated models with the area under the receiver operating curve and true skill statistic. We retained 16 models to project both in the past and future multiple general circulation models. At the last glacial maximum, the potential geographic distribution associated with S. tergeminus occurrences had a stronghold in the southern part of its current range and extended further south into Mexico, but by the mid‐Holocene, its modeled potential distribution was similar to its present‐day potential distribution. Under future model projections, the potential distribution of S. tergeminus moves north, with the strongest northward trends predicted under a climate scenario increase of 8.5 W/m2. Some southern populations of S. tergeminus have likely already been extirpated and will continue to be threatened by shifting availability of suitable climate, as they are already under threat from desertification of grasslands. Land use and habitat loss at the northern edge of the species range are likely to make it challenging for this species to track suitable climates northward over time.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%