2014
DOI: 10.1126/science.1252220
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Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific

Abstract: Understanding the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming requires quantitative data on ENSO under different climate regimes. Here, we present a reconstruction of ENSO in the eastern tropical Pacific spanning the past 10,000 years derived from oxygen isotopes in fossil mollusk shells from Peru. We found that ENSO variance was close to the modern level in the early Holocene and severely damped ~4000 to 5000 years ago. In addition, ENSO variability was skewed toward cold events alon… Show more

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Cited by 200 publications
(197 citation statements)
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“…The data also show that before the LIA, ENSO-like mechanisms were more important than the ITCZ in regulating decadal-to-centennial-scale maritime rainfall patterns in the eastern tropical Pacific, highlighting the unique nature of the LIA in the context of the past 2,000 y, and confirming the capacity for multidecadal and longer timescale changes in ENSOlike variability. This provides an important complement to subannually resolved reconstructions from short-lived corals (38) or mollusks (39) that are ideally suited for detecting changes in ENSO variance but lack the continuous duration to assess long timescales. The centennial-scale changes in both ENSO mean state and ITCZ dynamics that characterized the last 2,000 y highlight the importance of adequately capturing these climate modes in future climate projections forced by a radiative perturbation far in excess of any that occurred in the last 2,000 y.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The data also show that before the LIA, ENSO-like mechanisms were more important than the ITCZ in regulating decadal-to-centennial-scale maritime rainfall patterns in the eastern tropical Pacific, highlighting the unique nature of the LIA in the context of the past 2,000 y, and confirming the capacity for multidecadal and longer timescale changes in ENSOlike variability. This provides an important complement to subannually resolved reconstructions from short-lived corals (38) or mollusks (39) that are ideally suited for detecting changes in ENSO variance but lack the continuous duration to assess long timescales. The centennial-scale changes in both ENSO mean state and ITCZ dynamics that characterized the last 2,000 y highlight the importance of adequately capturing these climate modes in future climate projections forced by a radiative perturbation far in excess of any that occurred in the last 2,000 y.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…During the first 400 years, there was an average of 15 ± 7 El Niño events every 100 years, in contrast to an average of 6 ± 4 events every 100 years during the last 600 years (Moy et al 2002). Moreover, the moderate El Niño regime, established 3000 years ago, is sensitive to changes in climate boundary conditions, including, but not limited to, insolation (Carré et al 2014).…”
Section: Margen De Magdalena Y Su Respuesta a El Niño Durante El úLtimentioning
confidence: 97%
“…Durante los primeros 400 años, el promedio de eventos El Niño fue de 15 ± 7 cada 100 años, lo cual resulta contrastante con el promedio de 6 ± 4 eventos cada 100 años durante los últimos 600 años (Moy et al 2002). Adicionalmente, el régimen moderado de El Niño, establecido desde hace 3000 años, es sensitivo a los cambios en las condiciones de frontera del clima, incluyendo-pero no limitado a-la insolación (Carré et al 2014).…”
Section: Margen De Magdalena Y Su Respuesta a El Niño Durante El úLtiunclassified
“…Although paleo-ENSO records are difficult to reconstruct, particularly in the early Holocene (33−35), our IRM soft-flux record appears to be consistent with paleo-ENSO proxies available for the Holocene. Geological data and climate models document a mid-Holocene reduction in ENSO intensity and fewer El Niño-related flood events (33,34,(36)(37)(38) (Fig. 3 D and E).…”
Section: Close Correlation Between El Niño−southern Oscillation and Smentioning
confidence: 99%