Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling

Introduction. The methods of traffic modeling by water transport and assessing the risks associated with it is needed to identify the issues of the past period, proposing methods for assessing not only direct but also indirect risks to form the preconditions for preventing them in the postwar reconstruction. The coordination of different transport type’s actions of transport requires an assessment of risks impact of the previous stages of mixed transportation on the formation of the following risks’ stages. Existing methods of assessing such impact need to be improved. Aim and tasks. The aim of this study is creation of methodological approach to risk management in water transport based on a mathematical model for assessing the impact of both direct and indirect risks. The tasks are: to prove that the additive approach of taking risks into account leads to the systematic deviation appearance from the result; take into account the impact on the risk of cargo transportation. Results. It has proved that the calculation of risk as an additive function leads to a systematic deviation from the relevant result. It stated that the risk of each of the next stages of transportation depends on the risks of the previous stages. To increase risk analysis relevance in water transport, the use of an oriented graph in a multidimensional parameter space proposed. It stated that in order to calculate the integrated risk, it is essential building not only the risk matrix but also the risk incidence matrix to take into account their relation to business entities. It established the impact of even minor risks could take the form of a catastrophe, which leads to cargo flows reorientation. It established that: for calculation of integral risk, it is crucial consider direct and indirect influences of risks; risk calculation for water transport also requires risk analysis in related modes of transport. Conclusions. It was established that, when calculating integral risk, it is necessary to consider direct and indirect influences on risks and that the risk calculation for water transport also requires risk analysis in related modes of transport. The proposed approach significantly increases the relevance of water transport risk analysis and allows for managing changes in transportation routes in real time.

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“…Container traffic risk assessment using Bayesian network modeling (Zhou et al, 2022) also does not take into account changes in risks over time.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Water Transport Enterprises by Modeling Direct and Indirect Threats

Kotenko

Ilchenko

KASIANOVA

et al. 2023

ees

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“…Mishra et al have proposed an integrated approach in order to assess microgrid's resilience in a holistic way [22]. Zhou et al have proposed a holistic risk assessment framework based on Bayesian Network Modelling [23]. Abba et al…”

Section: çü Müh Fak Dergisi 38(1) Mart 2023mentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Holistic Risk Analysis Approach Based on the House of Quality

Selamoğlu

Kuvvetli

2023

Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi

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Risk management is a crucial process s that consists of many components. In risk management, different processes are considered, namely, risk identification, risk assessment, determination of preventive actions and monitoring. In this study, a novel risk management approach in which all risk processes are integrated is proposed. In this context, a holistic risk management approach based on the house of quality approach is introduced, and an eight-step creation process is defined. The proposed approach was applied for a primary health care center, and the hazards, risks to be occurred by these hazards, and preventive suggestions were presented. In the case study, twenty-five hazards were identified and eleven risks related to twenty-five hazards were identified and ranked. According to the risk priority numbers, five preventive actions were suggested and evaluated.

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“…Compared with the information in 2019, total carbon emissions in 2020 from oil tanker and bulk carrier increased by 3.6 %, whereas the container was down by 2.4 %. However, cruise ship and vehicle carriers have turned overall situation of carbon emissions from growth to the reduction ( Xu et al, 2021b ; Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 ; Yi et al, 2022 ; Chen et al, 2021 ). In summary, the COVID-19 epidemic effectively promotes the marine environmental improvement by destroying port production or interrupting shipping lines ( Chen et al, 2022a ; Chen et al, 2022b ; Chen et al, 2022d ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, many scholars have discussed the impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on the shipping industry ( Pan et al, 2022 ; Xu et al, 2022c ; Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 ). However, the previous researchers focused on the shock of the COVID-19 epidemic on the port performance and shipping network, which can be thought to be the important factors of long-term trend in carbon emission from vessel-source pollution ( Xu et al, 2021c ; Bandyopadhyay and Bhatnagar, 2023 ; Wang et al, 2022 , Wang et al, 2022a , Wang et al, 2022b ; Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 ; Chen et al, 2022c ). On this basis, there existed a discussion on carbon emissions in Western Singapore caused by marine traffic during the COVID-19 epidemic ( Ju and Hargreaves, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, the COVID-19 epidemic also contributes to carbon emissions through the macroeconomic fluctuations ( Dirzka and Acciaro, 2022 ; Gavalas et al, 2022 ; Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 , Zhou et al, 2022 ). Different from the previous studies, we conducted a combined investigate on the COVID-19 epidemic and carbon emissions from the international shipping in this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on carbon emissions from international shipping

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2023

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling

Cited by 33 publications

References 89 publications

Risk Assessment of Water Transport Enterprises by Modeling Direct and Indirect Threats

Risk Assessment of Water Transport Enterprises by Modeling Direct and Indirect Threats

A New Holistic Risk Analysis Approach Based on the House of Quality

Impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on carbon emissions from international shipping

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