2022
DOI: 10.3390/pr10040662
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Holistic Process Models: A Bayesian Predictive Ensemble Method for Single and Coupled Unit Operation Models

Abstract: The coupling of individual models in terms of end-to-end calculations for unit operations in manufacturing processes is a challenging task. We present a probability distribution-based approach for the combined outcomes of parametric and non-parametric models. With this so-called Bayesian predictive ensemble, the statistical moments such as mean value and standard deviation can be accurately computed without any further approximation. It is shown that the ensemble of different model predictions leads to an unin… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
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“…Random sampling from this distribution is used for the transfer to subsequent UOs. One advantage here is the combination of multiple models per UO, which may be useful in creating more robust predictive outcomes, especially in data-poor environments [ 21 ]. One consideration to add to this framework is the prediction of extreme model outputs.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Random sampling from this distribution is used for the transfer to subsequent UOs. One advantage here is the combination of multiple models per UO, which may be useful in creating more robust predictive outcomes, especially in data-poor environments [ 21 ]. One consideration to add to this framework is the prediction of extreme model outputs.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%