Hochwasserbewusstsein 10 Jahre nach dem „Jahrhundertereignis“ im Osterzgebirge und an der Elbe

The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model

“…According to the model, the awareness does not increase as much as the data suggest, even though the modeled awareness lies within the confidence bounds of the data, and society seems to forget less quickly than suggested by the literature, that is, μ A is lower than expected. μ A has a mean of 0.04, which is equivalent to a half time of 17 years and much longer than the 7 to 10 years that can be found in the literature (Bornschein & Pohl, ; ICPR, ). μ P has a mean of 0.02, indicating that the preparedness has a half time of 34.5 years.…”

“…It also allows for investigating hidden factors, like the forgetfulness of a society. In the case of Dresden, the inference indicates that after about 17 years, society has lost half of the awareness accumulated after an event, which is longer than what literature suggests (a half time of 7 to 10 years, Bornschein & Pohl, ; ICPR, ). Also, the model allows for the inference of the development of variables at time points where no data are available.…”

“…In that case, the estimates of the parameters have the smallest bias, with the exception of the estimates for the parameters determining the dynamics of the awareness. Since for the case study of Dresden we mostly have data at the end of the time period, this may indicate that the forgetfulness of Dresden (equivalent to a half time of 17 years) could have been underestimated and that the real value is in fact closer to the value that was found in the literature (a half time of 7 to 10 years and thus a bigger forgetfulness μ A (Bornschein & Pohl, ; ICPR, ). In general, the fact that having data at the end of the modeling period is most useful is good news, since for most sociohydrological systems, this is the time when data is usually available.…”

“…If information is available, it is possible to use an informative prior distribution; otherwise, a noninformative prior should be specified (Gelman et al, ). According to the literature, the half time of awareness, that is, the time after which awareness is halved, is 7 (International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine [ICPR], ) to 10 years (Bornschein & Pohl, ). Based on this information, an informative prior is constructed for μ A , the forgetfulness.…”

Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe 2016

“…Additionally, after the River Elbe in Germany flooded, the authorities took protection measures. Knowing that, individuals perceived the risk as lower and, as a consequence, were less concerned about protection measures only a few years later (Bornschein and Pohl, 2012). To avoid losing momentum, administrations therefore need to use windows of opportunity immediately when decision-makers and citizens become more aware.…”