HIV Spread: Some Statistical Results

Abstract

The spread of AIDS causative agent HIV has now entered the third decade. The infection was first noticed in 1981 in the USA. Within 2 decades, it has quickly grown to the level of an endemic. Unlike several other infectious diseases, AIDS endemiology is interdisciplinary, surrounded by many complex socio-economic, psychological, legal, behavioural and statistical issues. Knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible intervention strategies aimed at its control. This article discusses: i) Important special features of the spread mechanism which render the syndrome a lethal and silent killer. ii) A method to evaluate probability of infection in a heterosexual relation. iii) A method for estimating HIV infections in perinatal transmissions, and iv) The Indian HIV perspective and makes a few suggestions to control the reckless spread of HIV across the country.