Hitting the sweet spot of complexity: Reasons why the development of new custom-tailored models is still warranted and should be encouraged in aquatic sciences

Abstract

Process-based aquatic ecosystem models are increasingly being developed and used in freshwater ecology and other aquatic sciences, as they are powerful tools to gain a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes and inform policy and decision making in environmental management. Over the last decades, not only have these models increased considerably in number, but also in their degree of complexity, which can improve predictive capacity. Nevertheless, it is also because of the higher degree of complexity of many models of current widespread use, that not all the hypotheses and assumptions upon which they have been built are always met by the relatively simple experiments that characterise fundamental ecological research. This is true for both laboratory experiments and those carried out outdoors, under semi-controlled conditions. Examples of the latter are the mesocosms experiments through which several novel questions are nowadays being addressed. In this article, we present our views on why the development of new custom-tailored aquatic ecosystem models of varying degrees of complexity is still very much warranted and should, therefore, be encouraged despite arguments in favour of always increasing complexity and against the creation of new models that are largely based on previously published ones (‘reinventing the wheel’). Deciding on the right complexity level should be linked to the biological organisation levels that are relevant to the specific research questions, and to how much knowledge on the subject is already available. Spatial and temporal scales are additional factors that a modeller should weigh in when deciding on the complexity of a model. To address these needs in the long term, the modelling community needs to grow. Training a new generation of model developers will not only benefit other scientists to better design future experiments but will also facilitate interdisciplinary research and teamwork, approaches such as ensemble modelling, as well as the communication of science to managers and many other stakeholders.

Microcosm experiment combined with process-based modeling reveals differential response and adaptation of aquatic primary producers to warming and agricultural run-off

“…Custom-tailored models of appropriate complexity, i.e., including only the processes that are strictly necessary to reproduce empirical observations, are helpful to shed light on the critical mechanisms behind ecosystem-wide responses ( Vasconcelos et al., 2016 ; López Moreira et al., 2021 ). This is particularly true when addressing the effects of multiple stressors, for which the knowledge base is currently just starting to develop.…”

“…Combining experiments with process-based models may be a helpful tool to reveal variable trajectories, to test for critical threshold values, and to disentangle indirect stressor effects. Such models, however, need to be developed based on the specific research questions and the experimental set-up, i.e., custom-tailored to avoid running into equifinality issues ( López Moreira et al., 2021 ). The empirical results, in turn, allow for subsequent model refinement, calibration and validation (e.g., Kim et al., 2021 ), an iterative process that builds upon every new insight and gained expert knowledge ( Jakeman et al., 2006 ).…”

Spatial variability of the Po River food web and its comparison with the Danube River food web

“…There are several types of ecosystem models [17,18]. In this study, we focus on trophic networks (food webs) in which consumers are linked with resources [19].…”

Comparative Network Analysis of Aquatic Ecosystems: Linking Structure and Function

“…Ecological networks and modelling can be used to describe the structure of a system, for predictive purposes (temporal and spatial simulations), and to address management and conservation biology questions (Geary et al, 2020). There are numerous types of ecological networks (Moreira et al, 2021), here we focus on trophic networks (food webs). Traditional food webs provide a snapshot in space and time by connecting community members through their trophic interactions (Belgrano et al, 2005).…”