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Two approaches for setting ecological class boundaries, response curves and a simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol, were tested for coastal, transitional and open waters in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. The simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol defines acceptable ecological status based on expert judgment by a uniform relative deviation from reference conditions. In contrast, response curves derive class boundary definitions from observed changes in biological quality elements along environmental pressure gradients for class boundary definitions. Identification of relevant environmental pressures for the construction of response curves was based on a conceptual model of eutrophication in the Gulf of Riga. Response curves were successfully established for summer chlorophyll a and transparency, as well as for macrozoobenthos abundance in the Central Gulf, macrozoobenthos biotic coefficient in the Southern Gulf, and maximum depth of phytobenthos in the Northern Gulf. In the Gulf of Riga response curves almost always permitted a larger deviation from reference conditions than the 50% deviation applied for the simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol. The case study clearly demonstrated that class boundary definitions should take into account the sensitivity of the target water body. Also, the class boundaries for different ecological quality elements were internally more consistent than those derived by the simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol.
Two approaches for setting ecological class boundaries, response curves and a simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol, were tested for coastal, transitional and open waters in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. The simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol defines acceptable ecological status based on expert judgment by a uniform relative deviation from reference conditions. In contrast, response curves derive class boundary definitions from observed changes in biological quality elements along environmental pressure gradients for class boundary definitions. Identification of relevant environmental pressures for the construction of response curves was based on a conceptual model of eutrophication in the Gulf of Riga. Response curves were successfully established for summer chlorophyll a and transparency, as well as for macrozoobenthos abundance in the Central Gulf, macrozoobenthos biotic coefficient in the Southern Gulf, and maximum depth of phytobenthos in the Northern Gulf. In the Gulf of Riga response curves almost always permitted a larger deviation from reference conditions than the 50% deviation applied for the simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol. The case study clearly demonstrated that class boundary definitions should take into account the sensitivity of the target water body. Also, the class boundaries for different ecological quality elements were internally more consistent than those derived by the simplified mathematical boundary-setting protocol.
The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly reviewed. We then use recent regional -scale climate -ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity of the Baltic, causing it to become warmer and fresher. As an estuarine ecosystem with large horizontal and vertical salinity gradients, biodiversity will be particularly sensitive to changes in salinity which can be expected as a consequence of altered precipitation patterns. Marine-tolerant species will be disadvantaged and their distributions will partially contract from the Baltic Sea; habitats of freshwater species will likely expand. Although some new species can be expected to immigrate because of an expected increase in sea temperature, only a few of these species will be able to successfully colonize the Baltic because of its low salinity. Fishing fleets which presently target marine species (e.g. cod, herring, sprat, plaice, sole) in the Baltic will likely have to relocate to more marine areas or switch to other species which tolerate decreasing salinities. Fishery management thresholds that trigger reductions in fishing quotas or fishery closures to conserve local populations (e.g. cod, salmon) will have to be reassessed as the ecological basis on which existing thresholds have been established changes, and new thresholds will have to be developed for immigrant species. The Baltic situation illustrates some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.
The brackish Baltic Sea hosts species of various origins and environmental tolerances. These immigrated to the sea 10,000 to 15,000 years ago or have been introduced to the area over the relatively recent history of the system. The Baltic Sea has only one known endemic species. While information on some abiotic parameters extends back as long as five centuries and first quantitative snapshot data on biota (on exploited fish populations) originate generally from the same time, international coordination of research began in the early twentieth century. Continuous, annual Baltic Sea-wide long-term datasets on several organism groups (plankton, benthos, fish) are generally available since the mid-1950s. Based on a variety of available data sources (published papers, reports, grey literature, unpublished data), the Baltic Sea, incl. Kattegat, hosts altogether at least 6,065 species, including at least 1,700 phytoplankton, 442 phytobenthos, at least 1,199 zooplankton, at least 569 meiozoobenthos, 1,476 macrozoobenthos, at least 380 vertebrate parasites, about 200 fish, 3 seal, and 83 bird species. In general, but not in all organism groups, high sub-regional total species richness is associated with elevated salinity. Although in comparison with fully marine areas the Baltic Sea supports fewer species, several facets of the system's diversity remain underexplored to this day, such as micro-organisms, foraminiferans, meiobenthos and parasites. In the future, climate change and its interactions with multiple anthropogenic forcings are likely to have major impacts on the Baltic biodiversity.
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