Background
Urban forests are increasingly recognized as important tools in
climate change mitigation and adaptation, prompting many cities to set
tree canopy cover targets. However, current gaps in knowledge include
understanding relationships and the feasibility of maximizing benefits
between urban greening and other climate actions, such as densification.
This study offers a data-driven and manageable framework for assessing
current and anticipated future urban forestry conditions using spatial
tree and built-form models.
Methods
We spatially modelled 4 planting scenarios for increasing tree
canopy cover by 2050 in a densifying neighbourhood in Vancouver, Canada,
with low (< 10%) existing tree canopy.
Results
Based on mortality assumptions, we aged out and replaced 1,853 to
2,445 trees since 2020. We added 6,079 to 11,726 trees across the 4
scenarios (10,228 to 15,823 total), increasing canopy cover from 7% in
2020 to a maximum of 16% by 2050. Despite rigorous tree planting, we
were unable to achieve a 30% canopy cover target at neighbourhood scale.
Tree replacement due to mortality was a major contributor to decreased
canopy cover and volume in future scenarios. The 31% to 34% reduction in
future canopy cover due to the replacement of aged-out trees was driven
by changes on private parcels.
Conclusion
Our systematic framework for generating and spatially modelling
trees in a simulated future neighbourhood provides an opportunity for
iteratively assessing multiple potential tree planting configurations.
Future work for this project includes investigating social-ecological,
outdoor shading, and building energy implications of various modelled
urban forest strategies.