Historical trends in Crop Water demand over Semi-Arid region of Syria

Abstract

Climate change has caused a shift in aridity, particularly in the dry regions of the world which may subsequently affect several sectors predominantly the agricultural and water resources. This research examined the climate change effects on crop water demand (CWD) in Syria over the period 1951–2010. Given the lack of observed data, this analysis relied on (GPCC) precipitation and (CRU) temperature data from 1951 to 2010. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) at each grid was calculated using Penman-Monteith method and FAO-56 model was used to calculate the crop water demand (CWD). The analysis revealed that CWD in Syria increased from 1981 to 2010 when compared to 1951–1980.The increase in CWD has been found for all the crops except wheat, whereas the maximum changes are found during April, and May. The differences in CWD for Barley between the two periods were found to be in the range of -20 to 40 mm. A decrease in CWD observed in the south of the country. However, a rise in 0 to 20 mm range was also discovered in the north. The CWD for wheat was found to decline in most parts of the country. However, it was found to increase in the north. The increase in CWD for barley and wheat has increased agricultural water stress in the region. Several agriculture planning needs to be developed in accordance with the expected future climate changes in order to maintain the agricultural production in the region.